--- title: "Windmill case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Windmill ($61.70) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.87% from 40 items with odds, observed 90.40% over 338 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/387 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Windmill](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/387) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Windmill A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/387?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/387?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/387) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/387?window=all) Price · $61.70 Advertised RTP · 86.87% · EV $53.60 from 40 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.40% · 338 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81 openings · below min 7 days · 80.83% ±18.00 256 openings 30 days · 90.40% ±15.67 338 openings since tracking started · 90.40% ±15.67 338 openings 53.0% 85.8% 118.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/387?window=24h) | 81 | 85.60% ±32.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/387?window=7d) | 256 | 80.83% ±18.0 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/387) | 338 | 90.40% ±15.7 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/387?window=all) | 338 | 90.40% ±15.7 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 338 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $410 | 19.1% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.95× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $324 | 15.1% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.95× | | [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $250 | 11.7% | 14 | 8.4 | 1.66× | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $196 | 9.1% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× | | [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $151 | 7.1% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $117 | 5.5% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.95× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $97.15 | 4.5% | 15 | 8.4 | 1.78× | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $75.97 | 3.5% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $67.54 | 3.2% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $63.43 | 3.0% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $41.90 | 2.0% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.59× | | [Nova \| Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $39.06 | 1.8% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $35.05 | 1.6% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.59× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $34.29 | 1.6% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.59× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $29.95 | 1.4% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $29.55 | 1.4% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× | | [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $20.14 | 0.9% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $17.53 | 0.8% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× | | [XM1014 \| XOXO (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $17.03 | 0.8% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $16.08 | 0.8% | 12 | 8.4 | 1.42× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $14.87 | 0.7% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× | | [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $13.65 | 0.6% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.30× | | [P90 \| Shapewood (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $13.39 | 0.6% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.59× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $13.20 | 0.6% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.59× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $11.96 | 0.6% | 16 | 8.4 | 1.89× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $11.88 | 0.6% | 13 | 8.4 | 1.54× | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $9.05 | 0.4% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.95× | | [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $4.26 | 0.2% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× | | [XM1014 \| XOXO (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $3.88 | 0.2% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.59× | | [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $2.85 | 0.1% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× | | [MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $2.55 | 0.1% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.30× | | [MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $1.82 | 0.1% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.95× | | [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $1.44 | 0.1% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $1.38 | 0.1% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.30× | | [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $1.35 | 0.1% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× | | [MP9 \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1.34 | 0.1% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $1.30 | 0.1% | 15 | 8.4 | 1.78× | | [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $0.63 | 0.0% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× | | [UMP-45 \| Riot (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.30× | | [P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.36 | 0.0% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/387`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=387) [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $61.70 $1.30 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:19 UTC [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) Hidden $61.70 $4.26 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:19 UTC [MP5-SD | Agent (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) [SlawciuTV](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SlawciuTV) $61.70 $1.82 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:19 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) Hidden $61.70 $11.96 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) Hidden $61.70 $11.96 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-battle-scarred) Hidden $61.70 $9.05 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [-easy-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/-easy-) $61.70 $97.15 1.57x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) Hidden $61.70 $16.08 0.26x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) [Ciupapi MunianioCase.Gift](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Ciupapi%20MunianioCase.Gift) $61.70 $11.96 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC [PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-field-tested) Hidden $61.70 $1.44 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $61.70 | 86.87% | 40 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 15.0% extraordinary 2.5% restricted 15.0% classified 40.0% #8847ff 2.5% blue 5.0% Rare 2.5% #d32ee6 5.0% pink 2.5% Mythical 2.5% mil spec 2.5% #4b69ff 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.87 on average: an expected loss of $13.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt