--- title: "SWIPE case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "SWIPE ($0.70) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.99% from 21 items with odds, observed 89.99% over 239K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/39 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [SWIPE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/39) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · SWIPE A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/39?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/39?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/39) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/39?window=all) Price · $0.70 Advertised RTP · 88.99% · EV $0.62 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.99% · 239K openings, odds method Variance · 9.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.97% ±3.39 33.1K openings 7 days · 90.00% ±1.39 199K openings 30 days · 89.99% ±1.27 239K openings since tracking started · 89.99% ±1.27 239K openings 88.0% 92.0% 96.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/39?window=24h) | 33.1K | 91.97% ±3.39 | +1.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/39?window=7d) | 199K | 90.00% ±1.39 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/39) | 239K | 89.99% ±1.27 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/39?window=all) | 239K | 89.99% ±1.27 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 239K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $146 | 4.7% | 62 | 47.8 | 1.30× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 1,010 | $14.19 | 2.3% | 241 | 236.7 | 1.02× | | [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 641 | $8.95 | 2.2% | 356 | 373.0 | 0.95× | | [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 1 in 571 | $7.98 | 2.2% | 421 | 418.5 | 1.01× | | [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 297 | $4.15 | 2.2% | 784 | 805.8 | 0.97× | | [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 270 | $3.77 | 2.2% | 820 | 887.1 | 0.92× | | [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 244 | $3.42 | 2.2% | 1,034 | 978.0 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $2.51 | 2.2% | 1,263 | 1334.3 | 0.95× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 149 | $2.09 | 2.2% | 1,539 | 1602.1 | 0.96× | | [MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $1.60 | 2.2% | 2,106 | 2092.3 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 113 | $1.58 | 2.2% | 2,105 | 2118.6 | 0.99× | | [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $1.28 | 5.0% | 5,932 | 5853.7 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $1.19 | 5.0% | 6,160 | 6296.1 | 0.98× | | [P2000 \| Handgun (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.06 | 5.0% | 7,079 | 7068.4 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.98 | 5.0% | 7,564 | 7644.7 | 0.99× | | [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.89 | 5.0% | 8,615 | 8419.5 | 1.02× | | [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.56 | 5.0% | 13,328 | 13378.9 | 1.00× | | [P90 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.55 | 10.6% | 28,919 | 28802.2 | 1.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-briefing-field-tested) | 16.6% | $0.40 | 10.6% | 39,819 | 39605.8 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 20.7% | $0.32 | 10.6% | 49,321 | 49505.4 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) | 25.8% | $0.26 | 10.8% | 61,654 | 61652.8 | 1.00× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/39`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $146 208.7x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $146 208.7x 2026-11-11 08:15 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $146 208.7x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) [marceulxskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/marceulxskins.army) $0.70 $146 208.7x 2026-11-10 19:25 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) [Karol Rocki](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Karol%20Rocki) $0.70 $146 208.7x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) [✪Exp0✪](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%9C%AAExp0%E2%9C%AA) $0.70 $146 208.7x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $146 208.7x 2026-11-10 17:04 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $146 208.7x 2026-11-10 16:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $146 208.7x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) [RV\_DY-skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/RV_DY-skins.army) $0.70 $146 208.7x 2026-11-10 16:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=39) [FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $0.89 1.27x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) [Bartex](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bartex) $0.70 $0.89 1.27x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [UMP-45 | Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-briefing-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $0.40 0.57x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Bartex](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bartex) $0.70 $0.32 0.46x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $2.51 3.59x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $0.32 0.46x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [UMP-45 | Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-briefing-field-tested) [Kanciano\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kanciano_skins.army) $0.70 $0.40 0.57x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $0.32 0.46x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [Glock-18 | Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) [Didus ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Didus%20%E3%83%84) $0.70 $0.56 0.80x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $1.06 1.51x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $0.70 | 88.99% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% classified 0.1% #8847ff 4.3% #4b69ff 34.4% mil spec 4.0% restricted 7.6% Rare 28.9% Uncommon 20.7% best hit $146 (208.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.99 on average: an expected loss of $11.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt