---
title: "Analogy case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Analogy ($4.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.79% from 20 items with odds, observed 86.76% over 7,574 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/390
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Analogy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/390)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Analogy

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/390?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/390?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/390) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/390?window=all)

Price · $4.00

Advertised RTP · 85.79% · EV $3.43 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.76% · 7,574 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.62% ±5.07 934 openings

7 days · 86.84% ±1.95 6,309 openings

30 days · 86.76% ±1.78 7,574 openings

since tracking started · 86.76% ±1.78 7,574 openings

79.0% 84.8% 90.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/390?window=24h) | 934 | 84.62% ±5.07 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/390?window=7d) | 6,309 | 86.84% ±1.95 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/390) | 7,574 | 86.76% ±1.78 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/390?window=all) | 7,574 | 86.76% ±1.78 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,586 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $11.07 | 16.1% | 378 | 379.3 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.79 | 11.4% | 378 | 379.3 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.34 | 10.7% | 409 | 379.3 | 1.08× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $7.13 | 10.4% | 373 | 379.3 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $6.81 | 9.9% | 354 | 379.3 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $6.48 | 9.4% | 413 | 379.3 | 1.09× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.27 | 6.2% | 386 | 379.3 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $3.76 | 5.5% | 383 | 379.3 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $3.31 | 4.8% | 407 | 379.3 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.71 | 3.9% | 374 | 379.3 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.08 | 3.0% | 380 | 379.3 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.02 | 1.5% | 365 | 379.3 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.92 | 1.3% | 403 | 379.3 | 1.06× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.89 | 1.3% | 363 | 379.3 | 0.96× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.69 | 1.0% | 367 | 379.3 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.68 | 1.0% | 371 | 379.3 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.65 | 0.9% | 382 | 379.3 | 1.01× |
| [Negev \| Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.47 | 0.7% | 359 | 379.3 | 0.95× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.34 | 0.5% | 381 | 379.3 | 1.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.22 | 0.3% | 360 | 379.3 | 0.95× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/390`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=390)

[P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $1.02 0.26x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) [❦♱𝕶𝖆𝖝𝖔𝖓♱](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%9D%A6%E2%99%B1%F0%9D%95%B6%F0%9D%96%86%F0%9D%96%9D%F0%9D%96%94%F0%9D%96%93%E2%99%B1) $4.00 $0.92 0.23x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $0.68 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) [Kʳek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/K%CA%B3ek) $4.00 $11.07 2.77x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $4.27 1.07x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-well-worn) [LucA :D skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/LucA%20%3AD%20skins.army) $4.00 $7.13 1.78x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) [Mścichuj](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/M%C5%9Bcichuj) $4.00 $0.34 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-minimal-wear) [\[PRG\]DoLaR](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%5BPRG%5DDoLaR) $4.00 $0.47 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) [-\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/-_-) $4.00 $3.31 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [Whezzy\_outta\_hereskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Whezzy_outta_hereskins.army) $4.00 $0.65 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $4.00 | 85.79% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Rare 15.0% restricted 25.0% pink 10.0% #8847ff 15.0% classified 5.0% milspec 5.0% mil spec 15.0% violet 5.0% #4b69ff 5.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.79 on average: an expected loss of $14.21 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt