---
title: "Dream case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dream ($12.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.03% from 26 items with odds, observed 86.75% over 3,949 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/392
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/392)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Dream

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/392?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/392?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/392) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/392?window=all)

Price · $12.00

Advertised RTP · 89.03% · EV $10.68 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.75% · 3,949 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.00% ±23.52 496 openings

7 days · 89.59% ±9.15 3,281 openings

30 days · 86.75% ±8.34 3,949 openings

since tracking started · 86.75% ±8.34 3,949 openings

74.0% 98.0% 122.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/392?window=24h) | 496 | 98.00% ±23.5 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/392?window=7d) | 3,281 | 89.59% ±9.15 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/392) | 3,949 | 86.75% ±8.34 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/392?window=all) | 3,949 | 86.75% ±8.34 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,995 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,448 | $822 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,632 | $620 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 2,273 | $541 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,852 | $439 | 2.2% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 971 | $230 | 2.2% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-orion-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $182 | 2.2% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 746 | $177 | 2.2% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.31× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 709 | $168 | 2.2% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.89× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 676 | $160 | 2.2% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 649 | $154 | 2.2% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.65× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 219 | $110 | 4.7% | 16 | 18.2 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 199 | $99.59 | 4.7% | 19 | 20.1 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 150 | $75.09 | 4.7% | 28 | 26.6 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 98 | $49.23 | 4.7% | 41 | 40.7 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $39.61 | 4.7% | 59 | 50.5 | 1.17× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 70 | $34.95 | 4.7% | 59 | 57.3 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $34.14 | 4.7% | 68 | 58.6 | 1.16× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $33.84 | 4.7% | 58 | 59.2 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $25.77 | 4.7% | 100 | 77.7 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $18.84 | 5.9% | 125 | 133.2 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $18.77 | 5.9% | 128 | 133.8 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $17.40 | 5.9% | 140 | 144.3 | 0.97× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $16.38 | 5.9% | 139 | 153.2 | 0.91× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $14.09 | 5.9% | 182 | 178.1 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $13.98 | 5.9% | 158 | 179.6 | 0.88× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) | 65.7% | $0.05 | 0.3% | 2,639 | 2624.9 | 1.01× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/392`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) [快乐挖掘机](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E5%BF%AB%E4%B9%90%E6%8C%96%E6%8E%98%E6%9C%BA) $12.00 $822 68.54x 2026-11-08 13:08 UTC

[MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.00 $620 51.70x 2026-11-06 14:03 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) [sonic SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sonic%20SKINS) $12.00 $541 45.09x 2026-11-10 01:07 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) Hidden $12.00 $541 45.09x 2026-11-07 13:48 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=392)

[StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-factory-new) [type shittttt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/type%20shittttt) $12.00 $17.40 1.45x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) [Skins skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Skins%20skins.army) $12.00 $33.84 2.82x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

[Tec-9 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $12.00 $14.09 1.17x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.00 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.00 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $12.00 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) Hidden $12.00 $18.77 1.56x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-well-worn) Hidden $12.00 $25.77 2.15x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) [y4s](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/y4s) $12.00 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) [type shittttt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/type%20shittttt) $12.00 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $12.00 | 89.03% | 26 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 7.8% #d32ee6 2.1% restricted 0.2% covert 2.1% red 1.4% Classified 1.5% #d32ce6 3.3% #eb4b4b 3.3% #8847ff 8.1% blue 4.5% #777777 65.7% best hit $822 (68.54x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.03 on average: an expected loss of $10.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt