---
title: "Double down case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Double down ($7.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.95% from 18 items with odds, observed 88.25% over 6,583 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/393
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Double down](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/393)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Double down

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/393?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/393?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/393) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/393?window=all)

Price · $7.00

Advertised RTP · 88.95% · EV $6.23 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.25% · 6,583 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.26% ±15.35 865 openings

7 days · 86.07% ±6.20 5,298 openings

30 days · 88.25% ±5.57 6,583 openings

since tracking started · 88.25% ±5.57 6,583 openings

71.5% 87.5% 103.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/393?window=24h) | 865 | 87.26% ±15.4 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/393?window=7d) | 5,298 | 86.07% ±6.20 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/393) | 6,583 | 88.25% ±5.57 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/393?window=all) | 6,583 | 88.25% ±5.57 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,585 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 370 | $135 | 5.8% | 13 | 17.8 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 292 | $106 | 5.8% | 26 | 22.6 | 1.15× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 262 | $95.15 | 5.8% | 23 | 25.2 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 248 | $89.99 | 5.8% | 29 | 26.6 | 1.09× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 198 | $71.85 | 5.8% | 31 | 33.3 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 146 | $53.22 | 5.8% | 62 | 45.0 | 1.38× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $35.05 | 5.8% | 56 | 68.3 | 0.82× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $34.63 | 5.8% | 71 | 69.1 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| s1mple (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-holo-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 93 | $33.78 | 5.8% | 67 | 70.9 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $33.10 | 5.8% | 75 | 72.3 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 86 | $31.21 | 5.8% | 72 | 76.7 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Splash (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $25.67 | 5.8% | 103 | 93.2 | 1.10× |
| [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $24.04 | 5.8% | 92 | 99.6 | 0.92× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $18.22 | 5.8% | 125 | 131.4 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Antique (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $14.45 | 5.8% | 161 | 165.7 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $13.13 | 5.8% | 171 | 182.3 | 0.94× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $7.87 | 5.8% | 306 | 304.2 | 1.01× |
| [MP7 \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 77.2% | $0.06 | 0.7% | 5,102 | 5080.9 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/393`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=393)

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $7.00 $0.06 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [Get-\_Sinibu7 CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Get-_Sinibu7%20CSGOSKINS) $7.00 $0.06 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $7.00 $0.06 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $7.00 $0.06 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [Get-\_Sinibu7 CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Get-_Sinibu7%20CSGOSKINS) $7.00 $0.06 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $7.00 $0.06 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:37 UTC

[StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) Hidden $7.00 $14.45 2.06x 2026-11-11 16:37 UTC

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $7.00 $0.06 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:37 UTC

[SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [type shittttt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/type%20shittttt) $7.00 $18.22 2.60x 2026-11-11 16:37 UTC

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [Kendzior](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kendzior) $7.00 $0.06 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $7.00 | 88.95% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.3% restricted 5.3% #eb4b4b 0.4% industrial 0.4% classified 1.6% mil spec 4.2% #d32ce6 2.2% Classified 1.1% Uncommon 2.8% #d32ee6 4.6% consumer 77.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.95 on average: an expected loss of $11.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt