--- title: "Opportunity case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Opportunity ($1.80) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.91% from 27 items with odds, observed 86.59% over 39.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/395 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Opportunity](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/395) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Opportunity A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/395?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/395?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/395) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/395?window=all) Price · $1.80 Advertised RTP · 88.91% · EV $1.60 from 27 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.59% · 39.9K openings, odds method Variance · 9.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.17% ±8.02 5,531 openings 7 days · 87.57% ±3.33 32.9K openings 30 days · 86.59% ±3.03 39.9K openings since tracking started · 86.59% ±3.03 39.9K openings 74.5% 83.3% 92.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/395?window=24h) | 5,531 | 83.17% ±8.02 | −1.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/395?window=7d) | 32.9K | 87.57% ±3.33 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/395) | 39.9K | 86.59% ±3.03 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/395?window=all) | 39.9K | 86.59% ±3.03 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $418 | 1.3% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 16,667 | $353 | 1.3% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $182 | 1.4% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× | | [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $109 | 1.4% | 5 | 8.0 | 0.63× | | [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,818 | $38.62 | 1.3% | 15 | 22.0 | 0.68× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $35.63 | 1.3% | 20 | 24.0 | 0.83× | | [USP-S \| Business Class (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-well-worn) | 1 in 1,449 | $31.16 | 1.3% | 21 | 27.5 | 0.76× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-well-worn) | 1 in 266 | $14.33 | 3.4% | 137 | 150.1 | 0.91× | | [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 249 | $13.43 | 3.4% | 63 | 160.1 | 0.39× | | [FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-well-worn) | 1 in 246 | $13.26 | 3.4% | 150 | 162.1 | 0.93× | | [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 175 | $9.39 | 3.4% | 206 | 228.7 | 0.90× | | [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $8.86 | 3.4% | 165 | 242.7 | 0.68× | | [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 131 | $7.06 | 3.4% | 247 | 304.6 | 0.81× | | [FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $7.00 | 3.4% | 331 | 307.0 | 1.08× | | [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $6.49 | 3.4% | 240 | 331.3 | 0.72× | | [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $5.13 | 3.4% | 383 | 419.2 | 0.91× | | [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $4.81 | 3.4% | 490 | 446.7 | 1.10× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $4.71 | 3.4% | 488 | 456.3 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $4.21 | 3.4% | 507 | 510.6 | 0.99× | | [XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $4.04 | 3.4% | 489 | 532.1 | 0.92× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $3.86 | 7.5% | 1,081 | 1249.5 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $3.67 | 7.5% | 1,294 | 1314.2 | 0.98× | | [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $3.14 | 7.5% | 1,225 | 1536.2 | 0.80× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Silent Shot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-silent-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $2.73 | 7.5% | 2,041 | 1766.9 | 1.16× | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-bi83-spectrum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $2.73 | 7.5% | 1,618 | 1766.9 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-lapis-gator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2.01 | 7.6% | 2,211 | 2400.1 | 0.92× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) | 64.0% | $0.04 | 1.6% | 25,123 | 25545.0 | 0.98× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/395`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) [LxB I DziQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/LxB%20I%20DziQ) $1.80 $389 216.2x 2026-11-08 11:50 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) [Adolf](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Adolf) $1.80 $389 216.2x 2026-11-07 01:41 UTC [★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.80 $196 108.8x 2026-11-08 11:31 UTC [★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) [Andrzej\_PL](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Andrzej_PL) $1.80 $196 108.8x 2026-11-07 23:28 UTC [★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.80 $196 108.8x 2026-11-07 21:22 UTC [M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) [Tony](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Tony) $1.80 $181 100.4x 2026-11-07 15:11 UTC [M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) Hidden $1.80 $181 100.4x 2026-11-05 13:49 UTC [M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) Hidden $1.80 $109 60.79x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC [M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) Hidden $1.80 $109 60.79x 2026-11-10 15:44 UTC [M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) [Bocian.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bocian.skins.army) $1.80 $109 60.79x 2026-11-10 07:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=395) [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-lapis-gator-minimal-wear) [Komar](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Komar) $1.80 $2.01 1.12x 2026-11-11 17:48 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-lapis-gator-minimal-wear) [Rollcix](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Rollcix) $1.80 $2.01 1.12x 2026-11-11 17:48 UTC [FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) [salsi443](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/salsi443) $1.80 $7.00 3.89x 2026-11-11 17:47 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) [GyD skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/GyD%20skins.army) $1.80 $0.04 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:47 UTC [PP-Bizon | Osiris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) Hidden $1.80 $3.14 1.74x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) [Dzeki97](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Dzeki97) $1.80 $0.04 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) [OXO skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/OXO%20skins.army) $1.80 $4.21 2.34x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) [Егорка](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%D0%95%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0) $1.80 $0.04 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC [FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) [→●σѕкαя●←⭕⃤](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%86%92%E2%97%8F%CF%83%D1%95%D0%BA%CE%B1%D1%8F%E2%97%8F%E2%86%90%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A4) $1.80 $7.06 3.92x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) [pitik21](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/pitik21) $1.80 $0.04 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $1.80 | 88.91% | 27 | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.80 | 88.87% | 28 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% Mythical 0.6% mil spec 0.1% classified 1.2% #d32ce6 0.4% Rare 0.4% pink 1.7% #d32ee6 0.6% blue 0.8% restricted 16.3% Legendary 2.2% violet 1.3% #4b69ff 10.4% consumer 64.0% best hit $389 (216.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.91 on average: an expected loss of $11.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt