---
title: "Ridiculous case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ridiculous ($1.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.83% from 30 items with odds, observed 90.65% over 54.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/397
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Ridiculous](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/397)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Ridiculous

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/397?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/397?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/397) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/397?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 88.83% · EV $0.89 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.65% · 54.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 14.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.57% ±7.90 8,935 openings

7 days · 90.86% ±3.51 46.4K openings

30 days · 90.65% ±3.28 54.2K openings

since tracking started · 90.65% ±3.28 54.2K openings

79.0% 87.5% 96.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/397?window=24h) | 8,935 | 87.57% ±7.90 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/397?window=7d) | 46.4K | 90.86% ±3.51 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/397) | 54.2K | 90.65% ±3.28 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/397?window=all) | 54.2K | 90.65% ±3.28 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $141 | 2.8% | 17 | 9.8 | 1.74× |
| [P2000 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 3,226 | $79.61 | 2.8% | 10 | 16.8 | 0.59× |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 1 in 2,632 | $66.53 | 2.8% | 17 | 20.6 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,852 | $46.31 | 2.8% | 21 | 29.3 | 0.72× |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 1,724 | $42.79 | 2.8% | 27 | 31.5 | 0.86× |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 1,471 | $36.62 | 2.8% | 36 | 37.0 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Modern Hunter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,220 | $30.53 | 2.8% | 34 | 44.6 | 0.76× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $27.74 | 2.8% | 56 | 48.9 | 1.15× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 781 | $19.55 | 2.8% | 76 | 69.6 | 1.09× |
| [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 649 | $16.24 | 2.8% | 97 | 83.7 | 1.16× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 546 | $13.65 | 2.8% | 88 | 99.4 | 0.88× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 227 | $7.87 | 3.9% | 207 | 239.1 | 0.87× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 213 | $7.37 | 3.9% | 213 | 255.4 | 0.83× |
| [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-well-worn) | 1 in 172 | $5.94 | 3.9% | 304 | 316.8 | 0.96× |
| [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-factory-new) | 1 in 163 | $5.64 | 3.9% | 308 | 333.6 | 0.92× |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 155 | $5.36 | 3.9% | 301 | 351.0 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $5.02 | 3.9% | 366 | 374.9 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Asterion (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-field-tested) | 1 in 131 | $4.54 | 3.9% | 391 | 414.1 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 129 | $4.47 | 3.9% | 387 | 420.6 | 0.92× |
| [FAMAS \| Macabre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-macabre-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $3.98 | 3.9% | 532 | 472.7 | 1.13× |
| [Galil AR \| Kami (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $2.73 | 3.9% | 685 | 689.0 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $2.62 | 3.9% | 766 | 717.8 | 1.07× |
| [M249 \| Aztec (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $2.27 | 3.9% | 836 | 828.7 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $2.02 | 3.9% | 890 | 931.4 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $1.97 | 3.0% | 672 | 728.1 | 0.92× |
| [M249 \| Deep Relief (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-deep-relief-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $1.52 | 3.0% | 840 | 943.9 | 0.89× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $1.40 | 3.0% | 926 | 1024.8 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $1.21 | 3.0% | 1,117 | 1185.7 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $1.13 | 3.0% | 1,168 | 1269.4 | 0.92× |
| [Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) | 77.9% | $0.04 | 3.5% | 42,706 | 42350.7 | 1.01× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/397`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $179 178.6x 2026-11-04 10:24 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $179 178.6x 2026-11-03 21:43 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $141 140.5x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $141 140.5x 2026-11-10 23:00 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $141 140.5x 2026-11-10 22:37 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) [tyee](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/tyee) $1.00 $141 140.5x 2026-11-10 14:56 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) [LEOL SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/LEOL%20SKINS) $1.00 $141 140.5x 2026-11-10 11:36 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) [Kanclerz10 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kanclerz10%20skins.army) $1.00 $141 140.5x 2026-11-09 22:04 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $141 140.5x 2026-11-09 18:13 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $141 140.5x 2026-11-09 17:41 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=397)

[Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [TABAK](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/TABAK) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [karoliwanicki68](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/karoliwanicki68) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[Galil AR | Kami (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.00 $2.73 2.73x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%99%BF) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[M249 | Deep Relief (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-deep-relief-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.00 $1.52 1.52x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [Vessemiir skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Vessemiir%20skins.army) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $1.00 | 88.83% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.00 | 88.96% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed consumer 78.0% mil spec 3.4% restricted 6.3% Restricted 0.1% Mil Spec Grade 0.1% violet 2.0% #d32ee6 0.2% industrial 1.1% #777777 0.8% #4b69ff 3.5% #8847ff 1.3% #87c7ff 1.7% Rare 1.7% best hit $179 (178.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.83 on average: an expected loss of $11.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt