--- title: "Assorted case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Assorted ($4.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.95% from 23 items with odds, observed 86.02% over 7,315 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/398 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Assorted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/398) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Assorted A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/398?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/398?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/398) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/398?window=all) Price · $4.00 Advertised RTP · 88.95% · EV $3.56 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.02% · 7,315 openings, odds method Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 78.48% ±16.45 750 openings 7 days · 86.93% ±5.81 6,071 openings 30 days · 86.02% ±5.29 7,315 openings since tracking started · 86.02% ±5.29 7,315 openings 61.5% 78.5% 95.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/398?window=24h) | 750 | 78.48% ±16.4 | −1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/398?window=7d) | 6,071 | 86.93% ±5.81 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/398) | 7,315 | 86.02% ±5.29 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/398?window=all) | 7,315 | 86.02% ±5.29 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,320 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,064 | $128 | 3.4% | 1 | 6.9 | 0.15× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-well-worn) | 1 in 813 | $97.80 | 3.4% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-battle-scarred) | 1 in 787 | $94.92 | 3.4% | 8 | 9.3 | 0.86× | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 654 | $78.46 | 3.4% | 9 | 11.2 | 0.80× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 629 | $75.55 | 3.4% | 9 | 11.6 | 0.77× | | [FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-factory-new) | 1 in 274 | $36.28 | 3.7% | 18 | 26.7 | 0.67× | | [MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-prism-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 245 | $32.46 | 3.7% | 32 | 29.9 | 1.07× | | [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 238 | $31.49 | 3.7% | 34 | 30.8 | 1.10× | | [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-field-tested) | 1 in 142 | $18.84 | 3.7% | 38 | 51.5 | 0.74× | | [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-well-worn) | 1 in 134 | $17.73 | 3.7% | 48 | 54.7 | 0.88× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 124 | $16.45 | 3.7% | 51 | 58.9 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $15.77 | 3.7% | 74 | 61.5 | 1.20× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 113 | $14.93 | 3.7% | 63 | 64.9 | 0.97× | | [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $14.31 | 3.7% | 77 | 67.8 | 1.14× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $14.10 | 3.7% | 66 | 68.8 | 0.96× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 85 | $11.26 | 3.7% | 80 | 86.2 | 0.93× | | [P250 \| Vino Primo (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $10.20 | 3.7% | 46 | 95.1 | 0.48× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $7.18 | 7.5% | 266 | 273.3 | 0.97× | | [USP-S \| Para Green (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $6.70 | 7.5% | 245 | 292.8 | 0.84× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $5.75 | 7.5% | 311 | 341.2 | 0.91× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $5.34 | 7.5% | 287 | 367.4 | 0.78× | | [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $4.02 | 7.5% | 441 | 488.0 | 0.90× | | [UMP-45 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 65.7% | $0.04 | 0.7% | 5,107 | 4812.6 | 1.06× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/398`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=398) [UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC [UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [xtiamo6skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/xtiamo6skins.army) $4.00 $7.18 1.80x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC [UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [Slowik (COACH) skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Slowik%20%28COACH%29%20skins.army) $4.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-well-worn) Hidden $4.00 $5.34 1.34x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-well-worn) Hidden $4.00 $5.34 1.34x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [Kasb3rg](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kasb3rg) $4.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.00 $4.02 1.01x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC [UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC [UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $4.00 | 88.95% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $4.00 | 88.98% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 2 4.0% #ffd700 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% gold 0.1% classified 9.6% covert 0.2% restricted 1.6% mil spec 0.4% Restricted 0.7% pink 4.5% violet 1.3% #8847ff 5.0% Mythical 6.7% #777777 65.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.95 on average: an expected loss of $11.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt