---
title: "SET case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SET ($20.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.90% from 28 items with odds, observed 95.92% over 2,539 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/40
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [SET](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/40)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · SET

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/40?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/40?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/40) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/40?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 88.90% · EV $17.78 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.92% · 2,539 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.99% ±27.77 360 openings

7 days · 99.79% ±11.47 2,200 openings

30 days · 95.92% ±10.72 2,539 openings

since tracking started · 95.92% ±10.72 2,539 openings

70.5% 99.0% 127.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/40?window=24h) | 360 | 98.99% ±27.8 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/40?window=7d) | 2,200 | 99.79% ±11.5 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/40) | 2,539 | 95.92% ±10.7 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/40?window=all) | 2,539 | 95.92% ±10.7 | +1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,543 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 2,273 | $1,291 | 3.2% | 4 | 1.1 | 3.57× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,235 | $706 | 3.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.49× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 826 | $474 | 3.2% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 741 | $424 | 3.2% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 439 | $251 | 3.2% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 424 | $242 | 3.2% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 344 | $196 | 3.2% | 11 | 7.4 | 1.49× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 137 | $177 | 7.3% | 24 | 18.6 | 1.29× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-factory-new) | 1 in 129 | $167 | 7.3% | 12 | 19.7 | 0.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $129 | 7.3% | 22 | 25.6 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $97.74 | 7.3% | 32 | 33.7 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 70 | $90.18 | 7.3% | 26 | 36.5 | 0.71× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $82.56 | 7.3% | 39 | 39.9 | 0.98× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $77.84 | 7.3% | 46 | 42.3 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $36.63 | 7.3% | 99 | 89.9 | 1.10× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $24.64 | 7.3% | 125 | 133.6 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $13.59 | 1.8% | 51 | 59.6 | 0.86× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $12.33 | 1.8% | 63 | 65.7 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $11.19 | 1.8% | 68 | 72.3 | 0.94× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $11.10 | 1.8% | 61 | 72.9 | 0.84× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $6.46 | 1.8% | 112 | 125.3 | 0.89× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $4.84 | 1.8% | 168 | 167.3 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $2.11 | 0.2% | 48 | 44.2 | 1.09× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Well-Worn) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.59 | 0.2% | 136 | 158.0 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Caged (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-caged-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.55 | 0.2% | 173 | 169.5 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) | 11.1% | $0.33 | 0.2% | 319 | 282.6 | 1.13× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-well-worn) | 13.1% | $0.28 | 0.2% | 298 | 333.0 | 0.89× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-battle-scarred) | 20.6% | $0.18 | 0.2% | 591 | 524.0 | 1.13× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/40`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) [lemon skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/lemon%20skins.army) $20.00 $1,530 76.48x 2026-11-05 23:02 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) [DZIKIDragon](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DZIKIDragon) $20.00 $1,530 76.48x 2026-11-05 00:10 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $1,291 64.53x 2026-11-11 03:44 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $1,291 64.53x 2026-11-07 18:37 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $20.00 $706 35.31x 2026-11-06 21:28 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $679 33.95x 2026-11-05 23:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=40)

[Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-well-worn) Hidden $20.00 $0.28 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.00 $0.18 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) [Master Oogway](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Master%20Oogway) $20.00 $0.33 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) [Oskar](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Oskar) $20.00 $0.33 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) [alfredo di stefano](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/alfredo%20di%20stefano) $20.00 $0.33 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $4.84 0.24x 2026-11-11 14:48 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-field-tested) [wlazi skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/wlazi%20skins.army) $20.00 $24.64 1.23x 2026-11-11 14:48 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.00 $0.18 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) [WisniaQskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/WisniaQskins.army) $20.00 $0.33 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.00 $0.18 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $20.00 | 88.90% | 28 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $20.00 | 88.89% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 6.2% classified 17.3% covert 10.2% extraordinary 0.1% #ffd700 0.1% rare 0.8% gold 1.7% restricted 12.1% #4b69ff 51.5% best hit $1,530 (76.48x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.90 on average: an expected loss of $11.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt