---
title: "EXCLUSIVE case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "EXCLUSIVE ($28.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.86% from 38 items with odds, observed 85.22% over 3,864 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/41
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [EXCLUSIVE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/41)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · EXCLUSIVE

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/41?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/41?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/41) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/41?window=all)

Price · $28.00

Advertised RTP · 88.86% · EV $24.88 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.22% · 3,864 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.52% ±15.25 556 openings

7 days · 86.33% ±6.40 3,307 openings

30 days · 85.22% ±5.96 3,864 openings

since tracking started · 85.22% ±5.96 3,864 openings

68.5% 84.5% 100.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/41?window=24h) | 556 | 84.52% ±15.3 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/41?window=7d) | 3,307 | 86.33% ±6.40 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/41) | 3,864 | 85.22% ±5.96 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/41?window=all) | 3,864 | 85.22% ±5.96 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,892 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $6,497 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,433 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,314 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16,667 | $1,005 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $992 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 11,111 | $665 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 9,091 | $593 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 2,083 | $452 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 1,389 | $301 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 1 in 1,235 | $265 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-factory-new) | 1 in 1,124 | $243 | 0.9% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 1,099 | $237 | 0.9% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.13× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 1,053 | $227 | 0.9% | 7 | 3.7 | 1.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 877 | $189 | 0.9% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $127 | 5.4% | 43 | 41.6 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $123 | 5.4% | 43 | 42.7 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $123 | 5.4% | 34 | 42.9 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $121 | 5.4% | 37 | 43.7 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $115 | 5.4% | 48 | 45.9 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $108 | 5.4% | 38 | 48.6 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $108 | 5.4% | 45 | 48.8 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $107 | 5.4% | 42 | 49.3 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $89.98 | 5.4% | 51 | 58.6 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $89.14 | 5.4% | 57 | 59.2 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $53.41 | 6.1% | 78 | 111.4 | 0.70× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $44.47 | 6.1% | 96 | 133.7 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $41.57 | 6.1% | 143 | 143.1 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $38.89 | 6.1% | 116 | 152.9 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $33.52 | 6.1% | 166 | 177.4 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 127 | $24.59 | 0.8% | 69 | 30.6 | 2.26× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $24.27 | 0.8% | 100 | 31.0 | 3.22× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $6.84 | 0.8% | 119 | 110.0 | 1.08× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $4.53 | 0.8% | 172 | 166.1 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $3.97 | 0.8% | 219 | 189.5 | 1.16× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $2.21 | 0.8% | 345 | 340.5 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $1.96 | 0.8% | 364 | 383.9 | 0.95× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-minimal-wear) | 15.5% | $1.25 | 0.8% | 603 | 602.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 20.9% | $0.96 | 0.8% | 839 | 814.1 | 1.03× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/41`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [MAJOR](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MAJOR) $28.00 $668 23.84x 2026-11-06 03:28 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=41)

[P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) [kick.com/krycholewa (rozdaje$)](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kick.com%2Fkrycholewa%20%28rozdaje%24%29) $28.00 $1.96 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) [User0 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/User0%20skins.army) $28.00 $0.96 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.00 $0.96 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[UMP-45 | Exposure (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-minimal-wear) [Kasb3rg](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kasb3rg) $28.00 $1.25 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[UMP-45 | Exposure (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-minimal-wear) [Młody G](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/M%C5%82ody%20G) $28.00 $1.25 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[UMP-45 | Exposure (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.00 $1.25 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) Hidden $28.00 $6.84 0.24x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) [PatrickStar](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/PatrickStar) $28.00 $0.96 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.00 $2.21 0.08x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) [szucik](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/szucik) $28.00 $6.84 0.24x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $28.00 | 88.86% | 38 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $28.00 | 88.86% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 16.5% contraband 0.0% classified 19.2% rare 2.8% restricted 38.4% #eb4b4b 0.2% red 1.1% pink 0.8% #8847ff 20.9% best hit $668 (23.84x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.86 on average: an expected loss of $11.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt