--- title: "10% GLOCK case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% GLOCK ($4.20) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 82.46% from 18 items with odds, observed 84.19% over 18.6K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/424 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [10% GLOCK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/424) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 10% GLOCK A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/424?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/424?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/424) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/424?window=all) Price · $4.20 Advertised RTP · 82.46% · EV $3.46 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.19% · 18.6K openings, odds method Variance · 20.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.93% ±17.26 2,594 openings 7 days · 86.98% ±7.02 15.7K openings 30 days · 84.19% ±6.44 18.6K openings since tracking started · 84.19% ±6.44 18.6K openings 66.0% 84.0% 102.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/424?window=24h) | 2,594 | 83.93% ±17.3 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/424?window=7d) | 15.7K | 86.98% ±7.02 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/424) | 18.6K | 84.19% ±6.44 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/424?window=all) | 18.6K | 84.19% ±6.44 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $1,671 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 3,571 | $519 | 4.2% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $350 | 3.5% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× | | [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,087 | $138 | 3.7% | 22 | 17.1 | 1.28× | | [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 633 | $95.41 | 4.4% | 26 | 29.4 | 0.88× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 1 in 379 | $82.01 | 6.3% | 64 | 49.2 | 1.30× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 210 | $60.17 | 8.3% | 86 | 88.8 | 0.97× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 189 | $51.36 | 7.8% | 114 | 98.3 | 1.16× | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 262 | $50.25 | 5.5% | 54 | 71.2 | 0.76× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 397 | $46.51 | 3.4% | 61 | 46.9 | 1.30× | | [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 330 | $44.76 | 3.9% | 67 | 56.4 | 1.19× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 155 | $41.40 | 7.7% | 123 | 120.3 | 1.02× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 74 | $27.91 | 10.9% | 232 | 251.6 | 0.92× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $23.72 | 8.2% | 231 | 223.9 | 1.03× | | [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 132 | $19.44 | 4.2% | 135 | 140.8 | 0.96× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $12.91 | 5.7% | 248 | 283.5 | 0.87× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $6.23 | 3.6% | 376 | 372.5 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 90.0% | $0.26 | 6.8% | 16,775 | 16763.4 | 1.00× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/424`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.20 $1,671 397.9x 2026-11-04 21:57 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) [Dxnior ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Dxnior%20%E3%83%84) $4.20 $519 123.6x 2026-11-09 22:19 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) [SandalyAraba](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SandalyAraba) $4.20 $519 123.6x 2026-11-07 08:03 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) Hidden $4.20 $519 123.6x 2026-11-04 20:17 UTC [Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) Hidden $4.20 $350 83.34x 2026-11-11 08:39 UTC [Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) Hidden $4.20 $350 83.34x 2026-11-11 08:39 UTC [Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) [Capitan Price\[PT\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Capitan%20Price%5BPT%5D) $4.20 $350 83.34x 2026-11-10 15:14 UTC [Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) [-tweezy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/-tweezy) $4.20 $350 83.34x 2026-11-09 17:15 UTC [Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) Hidden $4.20 $350 83.34x 2026-11-08 21:49 UTC [Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) Hidden $4.20 $350 83.34x 2026-11-08 21:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=424) [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $4.20 $0.26 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $4.20 $0.26 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $4.20 $0.26 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [Siwy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Siwy) $4.20 $0.26 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $4.20 $0.26 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $4.20 $0.26 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [sperminomasimo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sperminomasimo) $4.20 $0.26 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $4.20 $0.26 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [76561199054196333](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/76561199054196333) $4.20 $0.26 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $4.20 $0.26 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $4.20 | 82.46% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 2.4% classified 1.3% Mythical 0.2% #eb4b4b 0.3% covert 0.5% mil spec 90.6% #d32ee6 1.2% Legendary 3.5% best hit $1,671 (397.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 82.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $82.46 on average: an expected loss of $17.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt