--- title: "10% USP-S case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% USP-S ($4.10) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.25% from 15 items with odds, observed 89.45% over 14.2K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/425 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [10% USP-S](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/425) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 10% USP-S A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/425?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/425?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/425) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/425?window=all) Price · $4.10 Advertised RTP · 84.25% · EV $3.45 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.45% · 14.2K openings, odds method Variance · 16.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 58 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.93% ±15.75 2,530 openings 7 days · 91.16% ±7.10 12.5K openings 30 days · 89.45% ±6.65 14.2K openings since tracking started · 89.45% ±6.65 14.2K openings 77.5% 94.0% 110.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/425?window=24h) | 2,530 | 93.93% ±15.8 | +1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/425?window=7d) | 12.5K | 91.16% ±7.10 | +1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/425) | 14.2K | 89.45% ±6.65 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/425?window=all) | 14.2K | 89.45% ±6.65 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,163 | $261 | 6.5% | 17 | 12.2 | 1.39× | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 114 | $123 | 31.3% | 143 | 124.9 | 1.15× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 532 | $118 | 6.4% | 30 | 26.6 | 1.13× | | [USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 465 | $67.24 | 4.2% | 25 | 30.5 | 0.82× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 272 | $63.75 | 6.8% | 47 | 52.2 | 0.90× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-field-tested) | 1 in 218 | $60.21 | 8.0% | 70 | 64.9 | 1.08× | | [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 326 | $51.99 | 4.6% | 42 | 43.5 | 0.97× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 347 | $41.42 | 3.5% | 42 | 40.8 | 1.03× | | [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-field-tested) | 1 in 578 | $28.02 | 1.4% | 21 | 24.5 | 0.86× | | [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 254 | $26.85 | 3.1% | 65 | 55.7 | 1.17× | | [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 299 | $25.22 | 2.4% | 46 | 47.3 | 0.97× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 172 | $19.70 | 3.3% | 70 | 82.3 | 0.85× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $14.59 | 6.2% | 205 | 206.6 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $7.65 | 9.5% | 606 | 605.2 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 90.0% | $0.11 | 2.9% | 12,744 | 12755.7 | 1.00× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/425`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) [.MotherFocker skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/.MotherFocker%20skins.army) $4.60 $281 61.07x 2026-11-05 00:25 UTC [USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.60 $281 61.07x 2026-11-04 23:39 UTC [USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.60 $281 61.07x 2026-11-04 19:30 UTC [USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) [heshowskyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/heshowskyy) $4.60 $281 61.07x 2026-11-04 13:14 UTC [USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) [Kasb3rg](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kasb3rg) $4.10 $261 63.64x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.10 $261 63.64x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC [USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.10 $261 63.64x 2026-11-10 20:11 UTC [USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.10 $261 63.64x 2026-11-10 10:51 UTC [USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) [SandalyAraba](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SandalyAraba) $4.10 $261 63.64x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.10 $261 63.64x 2026-11-09 17:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=425) [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [-\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/-_-) $4.10 $0.11 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $4.10 $0.11 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Kasb3rg](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kasb3rg) $4.10 $0.11 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC [USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) Hidden $4.10 $41.42 10.10x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $4.10 $0.11 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Kasb3rg](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kasb3rg) $4.10 $0.11 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $4.10 $0.11 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [abc ʕʘ̅͜ʘ̅ʔ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/abc%20%CA%95%CA%98%CC%85%CD%9C%CA%98%CC%85%CA%94) $4.10 $0.11 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Kasb3rg](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kasb3rg) $4.10 $0.11 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Szynka](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Szynka) $4.10 $0.11 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 11:42 UTC | $4.10 | 84.25% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $4.60 | 83.16% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 5.8% covert 1.4% restricted 1.0% Restricted 0.4% mil spec 1.5% industrial 90.0% best hit $281 (61.07x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.25 on average: an expected loss of $15.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt