---
title: "10% M4A1-S case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "10% M4A1-S ($9.10) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.53% from 22 items with odds, observed 68.93% over 2,241 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/426
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [10% M4A1-S](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/426)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 10% M4A1-S

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/426?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/426?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/426) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/426?window=all)

Price · $9.10

Advertised RTP · 84.53% · EV $7.69 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 68.93% · 2,241 openings, odds method

Variance · 29.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 58 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 63.26% ±50.32 453 openings

7 days · 69.02% ±23.73 2,031 openings

30 days · 68.93% ±22.54 2,241 openings

since tracking started · 68.93% ±22.54 2,241 openings

12.5% 63.2% 114.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/426?window=24h) | 453 | 63.26% ±50.3 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/426?window=7d) | 2,031 | 69.02% ±23.7 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/426) | 2,241 | 68.93% ±22.5 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/426?window=all) | 2,241 | 68.93% ±22.5 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,241 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $2,808 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,330 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,448 | $760 | 2.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $714 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,571 | $601 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 3,030 | $454 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 794 | $243 | 4.0% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 649 | $233 | 4.7% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $197 | 33.3% | 27 | 29.2 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 549 | $194 | 4.6% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.23× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 877 | $189 | 2.8% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 383 | $95.88 | 3.3% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.20× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 255 | $69.78 | 3.6% | 4 | 8.8 | 0.46× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 360 | $63.40 | 2.3% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 155 | $54.91 | 4.6% | 17 | 14.5 | 1.17× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 126 | $34.71 | 3.6% | 14 | 17.8 | 0.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $33.12 | 3.6% | 14 | 18.8 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 202 | $27.51 | 1.8% | 11 | 11.1 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $24.49 | 3.5% | 23 | 24.8 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $19.34 | 3.0% | 28 | 26.4 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $13.89 | 3.6% | 41 | 44.8 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 90.0% | $0.15 | 1.8% | 2,040 | 2016.9 | 1.01× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/426`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) [Defty](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Defty) $9.10 $760 83.48x 2026-11-05 21:54 UTC

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) Hidden $9.10 $714 78.45x 2026-11-07 15:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=426)

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $9.10 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.10 $95.88 10.54x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $9.10 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) [czak skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/czak%20skins.army) $9.10 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $9.10 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $9.10 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $9.10 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) [czak skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/czak%20skins.army) $9.10 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-field-tested) Hidden $9.10 $19.34 2.13x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $9.10 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 11:42 UTC | $9.10 | 84.53% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.80 | 84.00% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 4.3% covert 2.3% restricted 1.1% pink 1.1% industrial 91.2% best hit $760 (83.48x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.53 on average: an expected loss of $15.47 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt