--- title: "10% AK-47 case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% AK-47 ($14.10) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.29% from 24 items with odds, observed 72.84% over 2,753 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/427 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [10% AK-47](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/427) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 10% AK-47 A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/427?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/427?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/427) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/427?window=all) Price · $14.10 Advertised RTP · 84.29% · EV $11.88 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · 72.84% · 2,753 openings, odds method Variance · 34.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 48 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96.72% ±50.44 514 openings 7 days · 72.75% ±23.36 2,403 openings 30 days · 72.84% ±21.69 2,753 openings since tracking started · 72.84% ±21.69 2,753 openings 45.5% 96.8% 148.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/427?window=24h) | 514 | 96.72% ±50.4 | +0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/427?window=7d) | 2,403 | 72.75% ±23.4 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/427) | 2,753 | 72.84% ±21.7 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/427?window=all) | 2,753 | 72.84% ±21.7 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,753 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $11.5K | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,667 | $1,678 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $998 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $789 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 3,704 | $646 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 237 | $548 | 19.5% | 7 | 11.6 | 0.60× | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $236 | 2.0% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 709 | $225 | 2.7% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 243 | $221 | 7.6% | 14 | 11.3 | 1.24× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 510 | $196 | 3.2% | 9 | 5.4 | 1.67× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $194 | 1.6% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.73× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 980 | $190 | 1.6% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-battle-scarred) | 1 in 526 | $135 | 2.2% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 304 | $125 | 3.5% | 9 | 9.1 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 224 | $117 | 4.4% | 11 | 12.3 | 0.89× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $113 | 9.3% | 23 | 27.1 | 0.85× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $90.87 | 7.7% | 34 | 27.8 | 1.22× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $72.69 | 4.2% | 14 | 19.1 | 0.73× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 192 | $65.33 | 2.9% | 5 | 14.3 | 0.35× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 122 | $63.95 | 4.4% | 22 | 22.6 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 181 | $59.35 | 2.8% | 18 | 15.2 | 1.19× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $52.71 | 8.7% | 55 | 54.3 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 108 | $14.96 | 1.2% | 20 | 25.4 | 0.79× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 90.0% | $0.19 | 1.4% | 2,497 | 2477.7 | 1.01× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/427`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) Hidden $14.10 $998 70.78x 2026-11-10 22:16 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) [\*\*\*\* Q^](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/****%20%20Q%5E-76561199442829113) $17.40 $788 45.27x 2026-11-05 08:13 UTC [AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) [davids.777CASE.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/davids.777CASE.GIFT) $14.10 $548 38.86x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) [Tung Tung SaHUJ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Tung%20Tung%20SaHUJ) $14.10 $548 38.86x 2026-11-10 22:13 UTC [AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) [Sabuss](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Sabuss) $14.10 $548 38.86x 2026-11-09 16:31 UTC [AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) Hidden $14.10 $548 38.86x 2026-11-09 14:12 UTC [AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) [Sabuss](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Sabuss) $14.10 $548 38.86x 2026-11-09 12:24 UTC [AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) Hidden $14.10 $548 38.86x 2026-11-07 11:25 UTC [AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) [BIGFLOPPA](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/BIGFLOPPA) $14.10 $548 38.86x 2026-11-06 20:57 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=427) [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.10 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [jak to 2 na 13:00?](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/jak%20to%202%20na%2013%3A00%3F) $14.10 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [✪Spid ❤M](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%9C%AASpid%20%E2%9D%A4M) $14.10 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [porucznik P. Dał](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/porucznik%20P.%20Da%C5%82) $14.10 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.10 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.10 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.10 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [davids.777CASE.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/davids.777CASE.GIFT) $14.10 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.10 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.10 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $14.10 | 84.29% | 24 | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $17.40 | 84.15% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.1% classified 3.6% mil spec 0.1% red 0.7% Ancient 0.6% Legendary 0.9% #87c7ff 90.0% best hit $998 (70.78x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.29 on average: an expected loss of $15.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt