--- title: "10% M4A4 case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% M4A4 ($17.10) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.19% from 12 items with odds, observed 91.84% over 811 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/428 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [10% M4A4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/428) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 10% M4A4 A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/428?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/428?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/428) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/428?window=all) Price · $17.10 Advertised RTP · 84.19% · EV $14.40 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.84% · 811 openings, odds method Variance · 8.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 28 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 63.59% ±45.72 161 openings 7 days · 94.39% ±21.51 738 openings 30 days · 91.84% ±20.45 811 openings since tracking started · 91.84% ±20.45 811 openings 17.0% 66.8% 116.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/428?window=24h) | 161 | 63.59% ±45.7 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/428?window=7d) | 738 | 94.39% ±21.5 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/428) | 811 | 91.84% ±20.5 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/428?window=all) | 811 | 91.84% ±20.5 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 811 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,451 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,222 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $964 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $604 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 197 | $339 | 11.9% | 8 | 4.1 | 1.95× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $318 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 283 | $204 | 5.0% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $192 | 36.1% | 25 | 21.9 | 1.14× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $109 | 12.4% | 9 | 13.3 | 0.68× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $93.90 | 22.0% | 24 | 27.3 | 0.88× | | [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $77.58 | 7.5% | 14 | 11.3 | 1.23× | | [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 90.0% | $0.53 | 3.3% | 728 | 729.9 | 1.00× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/428`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=428) [M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) Hidden $17.10 $0.53 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) [Moszyl](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Moszyl) $17.10 $0.53 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) Hidden $17.10 $0.53 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $17.10 $0.53 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) Hidden $17.10 $0.53 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $17.10 $0.53 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) Hidden $17.10 $0.53 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $17.10 $0.53 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) Hidden $17.10 $0.53 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) Hidden $17.10 $77.58 4.54x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $17.10 | 84.19% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $22.20 | 84.13% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.0% classified 1.7% covert 5.0% restricted 0.0% mil spec 93.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.19 on average: an expected loss of $15.81 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt