--- title: "Howly Moly case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Howly Moly ($34.60) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.11% from 5 items with odds, observed 46.56% over 371 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/429 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Howly Moly](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/429) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Howly Moly A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/429?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/429?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/429) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/429?window=all) Price · $34.60 Advertised RTP · 84.11% · EV $29.10 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 46.56% · 371 openings, odds method Variance · 126.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 52 openings · below min 7 days · 297 openings · below min 30 days · 371 openings · below min since tracking started · 371 openings · below min -0.5% 307.3% 615.0% **Small sample.** 371 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/429?window=24h) | 52 | 308.01% ±306.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/429?window=7d) | 297 | 57.03% ±128.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/429) | 371 | 46.56% ±114.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/429?window=all) | 371 | 46.56% ±114.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 371 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,407 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 204 | $5,451 | 91.8% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× | | [Howl Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/howl-pin) | 1 in 50 | $43.77 | 3.0% | 4 | 7.4 | 0.54× | | [Patch \| Howl patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-howl) | 1 in 40 | $17.18 | 1.5% | 15 | 9.3 | 1.62× | | [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) | 95.0% | $0.26 | 0.8% | 351 | 352.4 | 1.00× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/429`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [nesTy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/nesTy) $34.60 $5,451 157.5x 2026-11-11 03:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=429) [M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) Hidden $34.60 $0.26 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:14 UTC [Patch | Howl patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-howl) Hidden $34.60 $17.18 0.50x 2026-11-11 16:14 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) [SlawciuTV](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SlawciuTV) $34.60 $0.26 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:14 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) Hidden $34.60 $0.26 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) [Steryd3](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Steryd3) $34.60 $0.26 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) Hidden $34.60 $0.26 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) [Steryd3](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Steryd3) $34.60 $0.26 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) Hidden $34.60 $0.26 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC [Patch | Howl patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-howl) [Steryd3](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Steryd3) $34.60 $17.18 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) Hidden $34.60 $0.26 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $34.60 | 84.11% | 5 | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $34.80 | 84.06% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.5% extraordinary 2.0% exotic 2.5% mil spec 95.0% best hit $5,451 (157.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.11 on average: an expected loss of $15.89 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt