--- title: "Krycholewa case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Krycholewa ($4.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.79% from 35 items with odds, observed 93.18% over 7,121 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/432 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Krycholewa](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/432) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Krycholewa A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/432?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/432?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/432) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/432?window=all) Price · $4.00 Advertised RTP · 88.79% · EV $3.55 from 35 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.18% · 7,121 openings, odds method Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.65% ±12.16 1,368 openings 7 days · 94.00% ±5.74 6,144 openings 30 days · 93.18% ±5.33 7,121 openings since tracking started · 93.18% ±5.33 7,121 openings 77.0% 89.8% 102.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/432?window=24h) | 1,368 | 89.65% ±12.2 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/432?window=7d) | 6,144 | 94.00% ±5.74 | +1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/432) | 7,121 | 93.18% ±5.33 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/432?window=all) | 7,121 | 93.18% ±5.33 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,124 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,778 | $270 | 2.7% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.17× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 893 | $86.03 | 2.7% | 11 | 8.0 | 1.38× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-field-tested) | 1 in 769 | $74.06 | 2.7% | 11 | 9.3 | 1.19× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 730 | $70.31 | 2.7% | 8 | 9.8 | 0.82× | | [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 662 | $63.56 | 2.7% | 14 | 10.8 | 1.30× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 625 | $60.01 | 2.7% | 12 | 11.4 | 1.05× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 420 | $40.35 | 2.7% | 16 | 17.0 | 0.94× | | [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-factory-new) | 1 in 217 | $32.42 | 4.2% | 27 | 32.8 | 0.82× | | [P250 \| Vino Primo (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-factory-new) | 1 in 162 | $24.20 | 4.2% | 47 | 43.9 | 1.07× | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 112 | $16.76 | 4.2% | 86 | 63.3 | 1.36× | | [XM1014 \| XOXO (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $15.71 | 4.2% | 63 | 67.5 | 0.93× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $15.67 | 4.2% | 74 | 67.7 | 1.09× | | [P250 \| Facets (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $14.92 | 4.2% | 78 | 71.2 | 1.10× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $14.24 | 4.2% | 71 | 74.5 | 0.95× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $12.06 | 4.2% | 99 | 88.0 | 1.13× | | [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $9.05 | 4.2% | 122 | 117.3 | 1.04× | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $8.51 | 4.2% | 138 | 124.7 | 1.11× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $8.41 | 5.2% | 148 | 156.7 | 0.94× | | [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $8.34 | 5.2% | 167 | 158.0 | 1.06× | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $7.85 | 5.2% | 165 | 167.9 | 0.98× | | [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $7.39 | 5.2% | 193 | 178.3 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $5.74 | 5.2% | 223 | 229.6 | 0.97× | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $5.30 | 5.2% | 251 | 248.7 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 114 | $3.28 | 0.8% | 54 | 62.3 | 0.87× | | [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $2.44 | 0.8% | 87 | 83.8 | 1.04× | | [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $1.76 | 0.8% | 114 | 116.2 | 0.98× | | [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.43 | 0.8% | 133 | 143.0 | 0.93× | | [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $1.22 | 0.8% | 159 | 167.7 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $1.21 | 0.8% | 178 | 169.1 | 1.05× | | [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $0.99 | 0.8% | 210 | 206.6 | 1.02× | | [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.55 | 0.4% | 210 | 196.9 | 1.07× | | [Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-fubar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.33 | 0.4% | 352 | 328.1 | 1.07× | | [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.23 | 0.4% | 431 | 470.8 | 0.92× | | [USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.23 | 0.4% | 454 | 470.8 | 0.96× | | [MP7 \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 38.6% | $0.04 | 0.4% | 2,715 | 2749.7 | 0.99× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/432`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [Asu\_nadusia67](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Asu_nadusia67) $4.00 $270 67.56x 2026-11-08 17:28 UTC [★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [SzajbaLSW](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SzajbaLSW) $4.00 $270 67.56x 2026-11-04 22:20 UTC [★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.00 $270 67.56x 2026-11-04 07:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=432) [MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) [Midzu.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Midzu.skins.army) $4.00 $1.22 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [P250 | Facets (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-minimal-wear) [Justin Bimber](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Justin%20Bimber) $4.00 $14.92 3.73x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [\< blank >](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%3C%20blank%20%3E) $4.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [kenyzez](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kenyzez) $4.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [sonic SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sonic%20SKINS) $4.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 $3.28 0.82x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [GregoireMachine](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/GregoireMachine) $4.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $4.00 | 88.79% | 35 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% classified 9.8% #ffd700 0.1% #4b69ff 11.2% violet 2.6% #d32ce6 1.0% industrial 1.0% Rare 1.0% restricted 7.8% Legendary 4.4% consumer 41.1% Uncommon 3.2% mil spec 9.0% Restricted 2.9% milspec 4.6% best hit $270 (67.56x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.79 on average: an expected loss of $11.21 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt