--- title: "AWP case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "AWP ($5.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.93% from 34 items with odds, observed 84.56% over 21.1K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/44 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [AWP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/44) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · AWP A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/44?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/44?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/44) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/44?window=all) Price · $5.00 Advertised RTP · 88.93% · EV $4.45 from 34 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.56% · 21.1K openings, odds method Variance · 35.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82.20% ±18.59 3,897 openings 7 days · 82.77% ±8.68 17.9K openings 30 days · 84.56% ±7.99 21.1K openings since tracking started · 84.56% ±7.99 21.1K openings 63.0% 82.3% 101.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/44?window=24h) | 3,897 | 82.20% ±18.6 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/44?window=7d) | 17.9K | 82.77% ±8.68 | −1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/44) | 21.1K | 84.56% ±7.99 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/44?window=all) | 21.1K | 84.56% ±7.99 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $7,910 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,706 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $568 | 2.3% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 2,778 | $282 | 2.3% | 4 | 7.6 | 0.53× | | [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 1,538 | $154 | 2.3% | 16 | 13.7 | 1.17× | | [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,389 | $139 | 2.3% | 13 | 15.2 | 0.85× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 1,149 | $116 | 2.3% | 12 | 18.4 | 0.65× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 901 | $90.62 | 2.3% | 20 | 23.4 | 0.85× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $76.92 | 2.2% | 28 | 27.5 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 495 | $43.42 | 2.0% | 41 | 42.7 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-factory-new) | 1 in 490 | $42.93 | 2.0% | 47 | 43.1 | 1.09× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 448 | $39.29 | 2.0% | 59 | 47.1 | 1.25× | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 441 | $38.47 | 2.0% | 57 | 47.9 | 1.19× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 402 | $35.08 | 2.0% | 49 | 52.6 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 391 | $34.21 | 2.0% | 63 | 54.1 | 1.17× | | [AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) | 1 in 389 | $34.10 | 2.0% | 46 | 54.3 | 0.85× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 364 | $31.83 | 2.0% | 62 | 58.1 | 1.07× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 336 | $29.35 | 2.0% | 70 | 62.9 | 1.11× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 273 | $23.89 | 2.0% | 65 | 77.3 | 0.84× | | [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 272 | $23.78 | 2.0% | 68 | 77.7 | 0.88× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-field-tested) | 1 in 238 | $20.79 | 2.0% | 101 | 88.9 | 1.14× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 171 | $14.95 | 2.0% | 99 | 123.5 | 0.80× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 168 | $14.73 | 2.0% | 111 | 125.4 | 0.88× | | [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 153 | $13.43 | 2.0% | 142 | 137.7 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 140 | $12.22 | 2.0% | 147 | 151.2 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $8.31 | 12.4% | 1,427 | 1406.2 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $8.29 | 12.4% | 1,380 | 1409.6 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 10.7% | $5.15 | 12.4% | 2,215 | 2268.9 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $4.50 | 2.2% | 499 | 460.0 | 1.08× | | [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $4.06 | 2.2% | 531 | 509.8 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $2.73 | 2.2% | 768 | 758.1 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $2.52 | 2.2% | 776 | 821.3 | 0.94× | | [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.24 | 2.2% | 1,619 | 1669.0 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 49.5% | $0.17 | 1.9% | 10,580 | 10460.6 | 1.01× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/44`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [CYGANcase.gift](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/CYGANcase.gift) $5.00 $568 113.6x 2026-11-05 23:09 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [Mat1k--](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mat1k--) $5.00 $568 113.6x 2026-11-03 22:11 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [dzikichomik CASE.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/dzikichomik%20CASE.GIFT) $5.00 $568 113.6x 2026-11-02 22:39 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [unlakiłak](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/unlaki%C5%82ak) $5.00 $282 56.45x 2026-11-10 00:04 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [Patryk\_2255.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Patryk_2255.skins.army) $5.00 $282 56.45x 2026-11-06 18:03 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $282 56.45x 2026-11-06 08:45 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [Tinky Winky skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Tinky%20Winky%20skins.army) $5.00 $282 56.45x 2026-11-05 13:57 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=44) [AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) [JR11](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/JR11) $5.00 $1.24 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [watin](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/watin) $5.00 $0.17 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-field-tested) [JR11](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/JR11) $5.00 $20.79 4.16x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-field-tested) [watin](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/watin) $5.00 $5.15 1.03x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [AWP | PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) [P4LOR☆☆](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/P4LOR%E2%98%86%E2%98%86) $5.00 $8.29 1.66x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) [Pro100WPysk skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Pro100WPysk%20skins.army) $5.00 $14.95 2.99x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [AWP | PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 $8.29 1.66x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [User0 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/User0%20skins.army) $5.00 $0.17 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 $23.78 4.76x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.17 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $5.00 | 88.93% | 34 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% classified 4.9% industrial 50.1% restricted 28.0% red 0.2% Restricted 0.3% Legendary 1.0% Classified 0.7% #8847ff 14.3% best hit $568 (113.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.93 on average: an expected loss of $11.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt