--- title: "10% Asiimov case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% Asiimov ($10.80) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.53% from 7 items with odds, observed 88.13% over 4,351 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/45 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [10% Asiimov](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/45) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 10% Asiimov A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/45?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/45?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/45) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/45?window=all) Price · $10.80 Advertised RTP · 84.53% · EV $9.13 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.13% · 4,351 openings, odds method Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.93% ±32.43 225 openings 7 days · 88.90% ±7.62 4,083 openings 30 days · 88.13% ±7.38 4,351 openings since tracking started · 88.13% ±7.38 4,351 openings 54.0% 87.0% 120.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/45?window=24h) | 225 | 86.93% ±32.4 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/45?window=7d) | 4,083 | 88.90% ±7.62 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/45) | 4,351 | 88.13% ±7.38 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/45?window=all) | 4,351 | 88.13% ±7.38 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,351 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $120 | 1.3% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $94.42 | 38.3% | 168 | 161.0 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $85.88 | 58.3% | 283 | 269.8 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.29 | 0.3% | 402 | 435.1 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.22 | 0.6% | 1,108 | 1087.8 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 25.0% | $0.21 | 0.6% | 1,102 | 1087.8 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.18 | 0.6% | 1,284 | 1305.3 | 0.98× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/45`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=45) [AWP | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $10.80 $0.21 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.80 $0.29 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [samuel giercxz skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/samuel%20giercxz%20skins.army) $10.80 $0.18 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $10.80 $0.21 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $10.80 $0.21 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Qbeqq SKINS skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Qbeqq%20SKINS%20skins.army) $10.80 $0.18 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $10.80 $0.18 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $10.80 $0.21 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [AB](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/AB) $10.80 $0.18 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.80 $85.88 7.95x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $10.80 | 84.53% | 7 | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $12.00 | 84.09% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% industrial 65.0% Uncommon 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.53 on average: an expected loss of $15.47 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt