--- title: "10% Kill Confirmed case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% Kill Confirmed ($8.40) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.59% from 10 items with odds, observed 87.48% over 3,426 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/46 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [10% Kill Confirmed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/46) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 10% Kill Confirmed A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/46?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/46?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/46) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/46?window=all) Price · $8.40 Advertised RTP · 84.59% · EV $7.11 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.48% · 3,426 openings, odds method Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81.91% ±21.06 452 openings 7 days · 85.61% ±8.41 2,850 openings 30 days · 87.48% ±7.67 3,426 openings since tracking started · 87.48% ±7.67 3,426 openings 60.0% 81.7% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/46?window=24h) | 452 | 81.91% ±21.1 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/46?window=7d) | 2,850 | 85.61% ±8.41 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/46) | 3,426 | 87.48% ±7.67 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/46?window=all) | 3,426 | 87.48% ±7.67 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,429 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $242 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $117 | 0.7% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.92× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 222 | $75.41 | 4.8% | 10 | 15.4 | 0.65× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $66.29 | 4.7% | 19 | 17.1 | 1.11× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $63.20 | 80.1% | 318 | 308.6 | 1.03× | | [USP-S \| Torque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $1.53 | 0.0% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× | | [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1.53 | 0.0% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.17× | | [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $1.03 | 0.0% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× | | [USP-S \| Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.81 | 2.3% | 726 | 685.8 | 1.06× | | [USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) | 69.6% | $0.73 | 7.2% | 2,339 | 2386.6 | 0.98× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/46`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=46) [USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) Hidden $8.40 $0.73 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) Hidden $8.40 $0.73 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) [joshskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/joshskins.army) $8.40 $0.73 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-well-worn) Hidden $8.40 $0.81 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) [Solufk4](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Solufk4) $8.40 $0.73 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) Hidden $8.40 $0.73 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:44 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) Hidden $8.40 $0.73 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:44 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) Hidden $8.40 $0.73 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:44 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-well-worn) [Tung Tung of Nazareth](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Tung%20Tung%20of%20Nazareth) $8.40 $0.81 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:44 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) Hidden $8.40 $0.73 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $8.40 | 84.59% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $9.30 | 84.16% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% #4b69ff 0.1% mil spec 69.8% blue 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.59 on average: an expected loss of $15.41 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt