---
title: "Kebabcio case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Kebabcio ($3.80) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.81% from 43 items with odds, observed 87.67% over 14.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/466
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Kebabcio](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/466)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Kebabcio

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/466?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/466?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/466) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/466?window=all)

Price · $3.80

Advertised RTP · 88.81% · EV $3.37 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.67% · 14.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.68% ±8.45 1,894 openings

7 days · 88.65% ±3.29 12.5K openings

30 days · 87.67% ±3.07 14.4K openings

since tracking started · 87.67% ±3.07 14.4K openings

84.0% 94.0% 104.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/466?window=24h) | 1,894 | 94.68% ±8.45 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/466?window=7d) | 12.5K | 88.65% ±3.29 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/466) | 14.4K | 87.67% ±3.07 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/466?window=all) | 14.4K | 87.67% ±3.07 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) | 1 in 787 | $82.13 | 3.1% | 12 | 18.3 | 0.66× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 694 | $72.05 | 3.1% | 16 | 20.7 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 592 | $61.46 | 3.1% | 24 | 24.3 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 490 | $51.05 | 3.1% | 30 | 29.3 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 450 | $46.90 | 3.1% | 33 | 31.9 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 272 | $32.09 | 3.5% | 59 | 52.9 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-field-tested) | 1 in 214 | $25.20 | 3.5% | 80 | 67.3 | 1.19× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 202 | $23.87 | 3.5% | 61 | 71.1 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 195 | $23.06 | 3.5% | 75 | 73.7 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 185 | $21.84 | 3.5% | 72 | 77.7 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 134 | $15.81 | 3.5% | 118 | 107.3 | 1.10× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $15.06 | 3.5% | 98 | 112.8 | 0.87× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $11.21 | 3.5% | 152 | 151.5 | 1.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $7.99 | 3.5% | 211 | 212.5 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $7.82 | 3.5% | 212 | 217.1 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $6.86 | 5.0% | 382 | 353.8 | 1.08× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $6.52 | 5.0% | 384 | 372.2 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $4.93 | 5.0% | 485 | 492.2 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $4.92 | 5.0% | 512 | 493.2 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $4.81 | 5.0% | 498 | 504.6 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $4.77 | 5.0% | 527 | 508.7 | 1.04× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $4.71 | 5.0% | 511 | 515.2 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $4.21 | 5.0% | 527 | 576.3 | 0.91× |
| [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $3.97 | 5.0% | 612 | 611.3 | 1.00× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-well-worn) | 1 in 465 | $3.72 | 0.2% | 23 | 30.9 | 0.74× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) | 1 in 457 | $3.65 | 0.2% | 22 | 31.5 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 413 | $3.31 | 0.2% | 43 | 34.8 | 1.24× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 223 | $1.78 | 0.2% | 69 | 64.6 | 1.07× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 184 | $1.47 | 0.2% | 63 | 78.3 | 0.80× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $1.16 | 0.2% | 103 | 99.3 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 139 | $1.11 | 0.2% | 97 | 103.7 | 0.94× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $0.95 | 0.2% | 127 | 121.1 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $0.90 | 0.2% | 110 | 127.9 | 0.86× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $0.63 | 0.2% | 186 | 182.7 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $0.52 | 0.2% | 211 | 221.3 | 0.95× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $0.51 | 0.2% | 204 | 225.7 | 0.90× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $0.47 | 0.2% | 249 | 244.9 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Tom Cat (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $0.36 | 0.2% | 309 | 319.7 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.35 | 0.2% | 311 | 328.9 | 0.95× |
| [FAMAS \| Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.19 | 0.3% | 707 | 700.4 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.15 | 0.3% | 887 | 887.2 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) | 11.6% | $0.08 | 0.3% | 1,728 | 1663.4 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Colony (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-minimal-wear) | 22.4% | $0.04 | 0.3% | 3,247 | 3224.7 | 1.01× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/466`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=466)

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) Hidden $3.80 $4.92 1.29x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) Hidden $3.80 $4.93 1.30x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Colony (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-minimal-wear) [✘Mefion✘シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%9C%98Mefion%E2%9C%98%E3%82%B7) $3.80 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Colony (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-minimal-wear) [Beerus skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Beerus%20skins.army) $3.80 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) [adamnicho](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/adamnicho) $3.80 $4.21 1.11x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-minimal-wear) [\< blank >](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%3C%20blank%20%3E) $3.80 $6.52 1.72x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) Hidden $3.80 $0.08 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Colony (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-minimal-wear) [Malina](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Malina) $3.80 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[AUG | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.80 $51.05 13.43x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Colony (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.80 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.80 | 88.81% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed mil spec 6.0% Legendary 4.3% covert 0.4% classified 4.4% violet 1.9% blue 0.5% #d32ee6 4.2% pink 1.3% #8847ff 10.7% Mil Spec 3.5% restricted 11.5% milspec 0.2% Mythical 0.5% Rare 1.6% industrial 1.7% #4b69ff 13.3% Uncommon 11.6% consumer 22.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.81 on average: an expected loss of $11.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt