---
title: "Kozielsky case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Kozielsky ($3.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.97% from 56 items with odds, observed 87.19% over 11K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/468
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:12Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Kozielsky](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/468)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Kozielsky

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/468?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/468?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/468) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/468?window=all)

Price · $3.00

Advertised RTP · 88.97% · EV $2.67 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.19% · 11K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.37% ±11.55 1,293 openings

7 days · 88.10% ±4.38 8,988 openings

30 days · 87.19% ±3.96 11K openings

since tracking started · 87.19% ±3.96 11K openings

76.0% 88.3% 100.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/468?window=24h) | 1,293 | 88.37% ±11.5 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/468?window=7d) | 8,988 | 88.10% ±4.38 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/468) | 11K | 87.19% ±3.96 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/468?window=all) | 11K | 87.19% ±3.96 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $225 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $137 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $133 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,348 | $110 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $107 | 0.9% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.58× |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 3,571 | $89.75 | 0.9% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 3,226 | $79.63 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 2,941 | $74.10 | 0.9% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.07× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,941 | $73.04 | 0.9% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $61.93 | 0.9% | 0 | 4.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-factory-new) | 1 in 1,724 | $42.71 | 0.9% | 7 | 6.4 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,266 | $31.57 | 0.9% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 408 | $23.79 | 2.2% | 19 | 27.0 | 0.70× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 394 | $22.95 | 2.2% | 26 | 27.9 | 0.93× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 383 | $22.30 | 2.2% | 39 | 28.7 | 1.36× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-factory-new) | 1 in 350 | $20.37 | 2.2% | 33 | 31.5 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 254 | $14.82 | 2.2% | 43 | 43.2 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 251 | $14.58 | 2.2% | 46 | 43.9 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-well-worn) | 1 in 240 | $14.01 | 2.2% | 53 | 45.8 | 1.16× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 240 | $14.00 | 2.2% | 48 | 45.8 | 1.05× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-minimal-wear) | 1 in 238 | $13.85 | 2.2% | 51 | 46.2 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 238 | $13.83 | 2.2% | 50 | 46.3 | 1.08× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-battle-scarred) | 1 in 231 | $13.49 | 2.2% | 40 | 47.5 | 0.84× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 159 | $9.25 | 2.2% | 70 | 69.3 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $9.10 | 2.2% | 78 | 70.4 | 1.11× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 141 | $8.20 | 2.2% | 76 | 78.1 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 121 | $7.05 | 2.2% | 86 | 90.9 | 0.95× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $6.46 | 2.2% | 103 | 99.1 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $6.17 | 2.2% | 102 | 103.9 | 0.98× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $5.63 | 3.6% | 207 | 187.6 | 1.10× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $5.62 | 3.6% | 165 | 187.9 | 0.88× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $5.45 | 3.6% | 201 | 193.8 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $5.34 | 3.6% | 221 | 197.8 | 1.12× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $5.09 | 3.6% | 190 | 207.5 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $4.27 | 3.6% | 255 | 247.3 | 1.03× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $4.05 | 3.6% | 272 | 260.8 | 1.04× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $3.56 | 3.6% | 294 | 296.8 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $3.41 | 3.6% | 303 | 309.7 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $2.78 | 1.8% | 190 | 186.6 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $2.60 | 1.8% | 190 | 199.5 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $2.17 | 1.8% | 241 | 239.0 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $1.86 | 1.8% | 295 | 278.9 | 1.06× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $1.86 | 1.8% | 277 | 278.9 | 0.99× |
| [MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $1.78 | 1.8% | 282 | 291.4 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $1.73 | 1.8% | 354 | 299.8 | 1.18× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $1.28 | 0.6% | 140 | 145.3 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $1.13 | 0.6% | 160 | 164.6 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $0.96 | 0.6% | 195 | 193.8 | 1.01× |
| [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $0.63 | 0.6% | 282 | 295.3 | 0.95× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.55 | 0.6% | 334 | 338.2 | 0.99× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.42 | 0.6% | 424 | 443.0 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Iron Clad (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.39 | 0.6% | 485 | 477.1 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.36 | 0.6% | 506 | 516.8 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.33 | 0.6% | 595 | 563.8 | 1.06× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $0.28 | 0.6% | 661 | 664.5 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) | 21.3% | $0.08 | 0.6% | 2,290 | 2347.8 | 0.98× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/468`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) [FluFel](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/FluFel) $3.00 $225 75.00x 2026-11-06 19:26 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=468)

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) [sztywnysiurek1](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sztywnysiurek1) $3.00 $0.08 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[SG 553 | Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) [SraxCASE.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SraxCASE.GIFT) $3.00 $6.46 2.15x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $2.78 0.93x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [Grzegorz Braun](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Grzegorz%20Braun) $3.00 $4.27 1.42x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[P90 | Grim (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-field-tested) [szmata szmata](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/szmata%20szmata) $3.00 $0.42 0.14x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $4.27 1.42x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) Hidden $3.00 $0.96 0.32x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[P250 | Iron Clad (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-field-tested) [Televizorlg skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Televizorlg%20skins.army) $3.00 $0.39 0.13x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $0.08 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC

[MP7 | Akoben (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $0.55 0.18x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.00 | 88.97% | 56 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 4.3% covert 0.1% Legendary 5.1% classified 9.4% mil spec 6.3% red 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 14.2% industrial 23.2% Rare 1.7% #d32ce6 0.4% pink 0.8% #8847ff 4.9% violet 2.8% #4b69ff 18.7% milspec 6.2% Restricted 1.8% best hit $225 (75.00x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.97 on average: an expected loss of $11.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt