--- title: "1% Crimson Web case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "1% Crimson Web ($8.90) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.04% from 9 items with odds, observed 78.06% over 1,410 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/47 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [1% Crimson Web](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/47) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 1% Crimson Web A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/47?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/47?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/47) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/47?window=all) Price · $8.90 Advertised RTP · 84.04% · EV $7.48 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.06% · 1,410 openings, odds method Variance · 65.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 111 openings · below min 7 days · 71.55% ±44.01 1,312 openings 30 days · 78.06% ±42.52 1,410 openings since tracking started · 78.06% ±42.52 1,410 openings -0.5% 149.8% 300.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/47?window=24h) | 111 | 148.85% ±150.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/47?window=7d) | 1,312 | 71.55% ±44.0 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/47) | 1,410 | 78.06% ±42.5 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/47?window=all) | 1,410 | 78.06% ±42.5 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,413 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $6,888 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $1,089 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 625 | $738 | 15.8% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $707 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $677 | 72.4% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $1.00 | 1.2% | 132 | 127.2 | 1.04× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.68 | 2.3% | 343 | 353.3 | 0.97× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.43 | 1.7% | 414 | 423.9 | 0.98× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) | 35.0% | $0.39 | 1.8% | 510 | 494.6 | 1.03× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/47`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-well-worn) [Siwy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Siwy) $8.90 $738 82.94x 2026-11-10 15:26 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $8.90 $738 82.94x 2026-11-10 12:07 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-well-worn) [STRAŻAK HARMI (ZIGI)](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/STRA%C5%BBAK%20HARMI%20%28ZIGI%29) $8.90 $738 82.94x 2026-11-05 21:00 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.10 $709 77.87x 2026-11-04 22:51 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [JAMAJ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/JAMAJ) $9.10 $709 77.87x 2026-11-04 15:10 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.10 $709 77.87x 2026-11-04 10:01 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [Dudu Bear skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Dudu%20Bear%20skins.army) $9.10 $709 77.87x 2026-11-03 21:27 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [kajkoczek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kajkoczek) $9.10 $709 77.87x 2026-11-02 21:57 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [Niemiecki Agent](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Niemiecki%20Agent) $8.90 $677 76.02x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.90 $677 76.02x 2026-11-09 22:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=47) [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $8.90 $0.43 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.90 $1.00 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $8.90 $0.43 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [Domin\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Domin_skins.army) $8.90 $0.68 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $8.90 $0.43 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [Niemiecki Agent](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Niemiecki%20Agent) $8.90 $677 76.02x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $8.90 $0.43 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $8.90 $0.39 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) [kajkoczek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kajkoczek) $8.90 $0.39 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $8.90 $0.39 0.04x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $8.90 | 84.04% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $9.10 | 84.36% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% #ffd700 0.8% mil spec 99.0% best hit $738 (82.94x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.04 on average: an expected loss of $15.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt