---
title: "Ciekavski case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ciekavski ($25.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.95% from 53 items with odds, observed 85.60% over 955 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/474
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Ciekavski](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/474)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Ciekavski

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/474?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/474?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/474) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/474?window=all)

Price · $25.00

Advertised RTP · 88.95% · EV $22.24 from 53 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.60% · 955 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.23% ±32.27 127 openings

7 days · 81.89% ±13.12 823 openings

30 days · 85.60% ±12.19 955 openings

since tracking started · 85.60% ±12.19 955 openings

57.5% 90.3% 123.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/474?window=24h) | 127 | 90.23% ±32.3 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/474?window=7d) | 823 | 81.89% ±13.1 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/474) | 955 | 85.60% ±12.2 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/474?window=all) | 955 | 85.60% ±12.2 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 958 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,616 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) | 1 in 1,923 | $702 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 1,176 | $430 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 962 | $354 | 1.7% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-field-tested) | 1 in 676 | $247 | 1.6% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $244 | 1.6% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 575 | $215 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 568 | $212 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 532 | $199 | 1.7% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 465 | $174 | 1.7% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 345 | $129 | 1.7% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.44× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 342 | $128 | 1.7% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 337 | $126 | 1.7% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.35× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 313 | $117 | 1.7% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-battle-scarred) | 1 in 305 | $114 | 1.7% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.64× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 292 | $109 | 1.7% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.52× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $107 | 1.7% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.19× |
| [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-minimal-wear) | 1 in 263 | $98.46 | 1.7% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.10× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 1 in 258 | $96.34 | 1.7% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 253 | $94.71 | 1.7% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 243 | $90.66 | 1.7% | 1 | 3.9 | 0.25× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 240 | $89.90 | 1.7% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.25× |
| [Tec-9 \| Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-field-tested) | 1 in 218 | $81.54 | 1.7% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.46× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 203 | $75.77 | 1.7% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 186 | $69.43 | 1.7% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.78× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $67.95 | 1.7% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 181 | $67.68 | 1.7% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 168 | $62.94 | 1.7% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 166 | $62.22 | 1.7% | 12 | 5.8 | 2.08× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 159 | $59.57 | 1.7% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 156 | $58.07 | 1.7% | 3 | 6.2 | 0.49× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 149 | $55.53 | 1.7% | 4 | 6.4 | 0.62× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 148 | $55.21 | 1.7% | 10 | 6.5 | 1.54× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142 | $52.89 | 1.7% | 9 | 6.8 | 1.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 139 | $51.77 | 1.7% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.72× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 139 | $51.74 | 1.7% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.01× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $44.56 | 5.6% | 25 | 26.5 | 0.94× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $41.22 | 5.5% | 26 | 28.7 | 0.91× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $41.15 | 5.5% | 12 | 28.7 | 0.42× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $34.49 | 5.6% | 29 | 34.3 | 0.85× |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $31.64 | 5.6% | 33 | 37.4 | 0.88× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $25.32 | 5.6% | 50 | 46.7 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $25.05 | 5.6% | 51 | 47.2 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 175 | $8.73 | 0.2% | 10 | 5.5 | 1.82× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-well-worn) | 1 in 128 | $6.38 | 0.2% | 13 | 7.5 | 1.73× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $5.39 | 0.2% | 7 | 8.9 | 0.79× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $3.26 | 0.2% | 16 | 14.7 | 1.09× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $1.41 | 0.2% | 42 | 34.0 | 1.24× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.13 | 0.2% | 36 | 42.4 | 0.85× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-field-tested) | 11.6% | $0.43 | 0.2% | 127 | 111.4 | 1.14× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-field-tested) | 11.6% | $0.43 | 0.2% | 122 | 111.4 | 1.10× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 11.9% | $0.42 | 0.2% | 107 | 114.0 | 0.94× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-field-tested) | 12.9% | $0.39 | 0.2% | 129 | 124.0 | 1.04× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/474`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) [svert ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/svert%20%E3%83%84) $25.00 $627 25.07x 2026-11-06 00:00 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=474)

[P250 | Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) Hidden $25.00 $41.15 1.65x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[MAC-10 | Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.00 $51.74 2.07x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) [User0 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/User0%20skins.army) $25.00 $107 4.27x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) Hidden $25.00 $1.13 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Ventilators (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $0.39 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[AWP | Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) [User0 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/User0%20skins.army) $25.00 $25.05 1.00x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Ventilators (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-field-tested) [User0 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/User0%20skins.army) $25.00 $0.39 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) [Green](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Green) $25.00 $0.42 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[P250 | Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) [JR11](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/JR11) $25.00 $41.15 1.65x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) [pitruu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/pitruu) $25.00 $96.34 3.85x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $25.00 | 88.95% | 53 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $25.00 | 88.83% | 53 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.3% restricted 10.9% #d32ee6 4.0% classified 5.3% red 0.5% Legendary 0.2% epic 0.2% covert knife 0.3% extraordinary 7.0% mil spec 12.1% #ffd700 0.7% Covert 0.7% Ancient 3.6% violet 8.5% #d32ce6 0.8% pink 0.9% #8847ff 13.4% #4b69ff 11.6% blue 12.9% best hit $627 (25.07x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.95 on average: an expected loss of $11.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt