---
title: "Premium case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Premium ($30.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.91% from 35 items with odds, observed 87.00% over 7,047 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/49
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Premium](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/49)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Premium

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/49?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/49?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/49) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/49?window=all)

Price · $30.00

Advertised RTP · 88.91% · EV $26.67 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.00% · 7,047 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.57% ±9.96 1,263 openings

7 days · 87.89% ±4.91 5,374 openings

30 days · 87.00% ±4.34 7,047 openings

since tracking started · 87.00% ±4.34 7,047 openings

77.0% 87.5% 98.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/49?window=24h) | 1,263 | 87.57% ±9.96 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/49?window=7d) | 5,374 | 87.89% ±4.91 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/49) | 7,047 | 87.00% ±4.34 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/49?window=all) | 7,047 | 87.00% ±4.34 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,209 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $7,491 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,383 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $3,190 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $2,222 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,425 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $1,314 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $992 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 4,762 | $665 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,167 | $593 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 3,704 | $514 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 3,226 | $452 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,381 | $334 | 0.5% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,695 | $241 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 1,613 | $227 | 0.5% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 157 | $155 | 3.7% | 43 | 45.8 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $129 | 3.7% | 60 | 55.3 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 129 | $127 | 3.7% | 63 | 56.0 | 1.12× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $123 | 3.7% | 60 | 57.6 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $121 | 3.7% | 56 | 59.0 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $120 | 3.7% | 57 | 59.2 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $110 | 3.7% | 54 | 64.7 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $108 | 3.7% | 70 | 65.5 | 1.07× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $104 | 3.7% | 59 | 68.3 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $97.30 | 4.6% | 84 | 90.8 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $89.94 | 4.6% | 77 | 98.2 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $89.80 | 4.6% | 93 | 98.3 | 0.95× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $85.28 | 4.6% | 89 | 103.5 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $84.82 | 4.6% | 78 | 104.1 | 0.75× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $75.48 | 4.6% | 101 | 117.0 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $41.57 | 4.6% | 224 | 212.4 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $36.64 | 4.6% | 217 | 241.0 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 11.5% | $14.34 | 6.2% | 838 | 829.5 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 13.9% | $11.89 | 6.2% | 1,061 | 1000.4 | 1.06× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-battle-scarred) | 14.3% | $11.54 | 6.2% | 1,032 | 1030.7 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 37.9% | $4.43 | 6.3% | 2,780 | 2731.1 | 1.02× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/49`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) [WJEZDZAM ROZJEZDZAM](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/WJEZDZAM%20ROZJEZDZAM) $30.00 $992 33.07x 2026-11-09 12:09 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $30.00 $792 26.39x 2026-11-04 20:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [BIG mlody\_jr skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/BIG%20mlody_jr%20skins.army) $30.00 $668 22.25x 2026-11-04 19:38 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [MEJ5ON](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MEJ5ON) $30.00 $665 22.17x 2026-11-07 00:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $30.00 $593 19.76x 2026-11-06 18:23 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $30.00 $578 19.28x 2026-11-05 15:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) Hidden $30.00 $568 18.94x 2026-11-02 21:41 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [GINOLT](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/GINOLT) $30.00 $514 17.15x 2026-11-07 09:41 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=49)

[P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-battle-scarred) Hidden $30.00 $11.54 0.38x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $30.00 $36.64 1.22x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) [180KgLewyCS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/180KgLewyCS2.ME) $30.00 $14.34 0.48x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) Hidden $30.00 $4.43 0.15x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-battle-scarred) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $30.00 $11.54 0.38x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) [180KgLewyCS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/180KgLewyCS2.ME) $30.00 $104 3.47x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) Hidden $30.00 $4.43 0.15x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC

[M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) Hidden $30.00 $452 15.06x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) [Pablo Sabre skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Pablo%20Sabre%20skins.army) $30.00 $4.43 0.15x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) Hidden $30.00 $14.34 0.48x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $30.00 | 88.91% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $30.00 | 89.04% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 16.4% contraband 0.0% classified 41.4% restricted 37.9% rare 0.0% red 4.2% best hit $992 (33.07x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.91 on average: an expected loss of $11.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt