---
title: "Luxury Knife case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Luxury Knife ($250.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.56% from 68 items with odds, observed 90.41% over 159 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/50
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Luxury Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/50)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Luxury Knife

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/50?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/50?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/50) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/50?window=all)

Price · $250.00

Advertised RTP · 86.56% · EV $216.39 from 68 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.41% · 159 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 54 openings · below min

7 days · 91.51% ±15.39 148 openings

30 days · 90.41% ±14.85 159 openings

since tracking started · 90.41% ±14.85 159 openings

75.0% 106.3% 137.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/50?window=24h) | 54 | 111.13% ±25.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/50?window=7d) | 148 | 91.51% ±15.4 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/50) | 159 | 90.41% ±14.8 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/50?window=all) | 159 | 90.41% ±14.8 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 159 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,220 | $2,575 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,176 | $2,482 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,031 | $2,176 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 709 | $1,499 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 694 | $1,468 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 654 | $1,379 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 599 | $1,262 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 518 | $1,095 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 505 | $1,065 | 1.0% | 3 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 265 | $910 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 253 | $868 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 226 | $777 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 219 | $752 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 215 | $738 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 197 | $678 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 197 | $676 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 193 | $663 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-field-tested) | 1 in 175 | $601 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 168 | $578 | 1.6% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $573 | 1.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 161 | $554 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 160 | $550 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 160 | $549 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 157 | $541 | 1.6% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 147 | $504 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $499 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 106 | $497 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 98 | $462 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 98 | $462 | 2.2% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.85× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $394 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 82 | $384 | 2.2% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.05× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $377 | 2.2% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 74 | $349 | 2.2% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.93× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 73 | $343 | 2.2% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $341 | 2.2% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $336 | 2.2% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.24× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $304 | 2.2% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $298 | 2.2% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $286 | 2.2% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.91× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $262 | 2.2% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $253 | 2.2% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.68× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $251 | 2.2% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.67× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 142 | $232 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $213 | 0.8% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.46× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $212 | 0.8% | 5 | 1.2 | 4.08× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 126 | $206 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 126 | $206 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.58× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $199 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $191 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.47× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $180 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 108 | $177 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 101 | $165 | 0.8% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.91× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $163 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $156 | 0.8% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.80× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $154 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $137 | 0.8% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.11× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 79 | $128 | 0.8% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $127 | 0.8% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $117 | 0.8% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.24× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $109 | 0.8% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $109 | 0.8% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $107 | 0.8% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.65× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $99.43 | 0.8% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $78.52 | 2.6% | 10 | 11.3 | 0.88× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $67.80 | 2.6% | 13 | 13.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $60.18 | 2.6% | 13 | 14.8 | 0.88× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $59.52 | 2.6% | 11 | 15.0 | 0.74× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $57.73 | 2.6% | 15 | 15.7 | 0.96× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/50`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $250 $1,499 6.00x 2026-11-10 17:52 UTC

[★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $250 $1,262 5.05x 2026-11-07 23:46 UTC

[★ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $250 $1,065 4.26x 2026-11-10 18:15 UTC

[★ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $250 $1,065 4.26x 2026-11-10 16:28 UTC

[★ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $250 $1,065 4.26x 2026-11-05 13:25 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) [boltz](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/boltz) $250 $910 3.64x 2026-11-07 12:51 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) [Speedy Gonzalez](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Speedy%20Gonzalez) $250 $752 3.01x 2026-11-10 17:52 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $250 $676 2.71x 2026-11-10 18:15 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) [Speedy Gonzalez](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Speedy%20Gonzalez) $250 $578 2.31x 2026-11-10 18:15 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $250 $578 2.31x 2026-11-10 14:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=50)

[★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $250 $286 1.14x 2026-11-10 20:59 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [ADM](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ADM) $250 $67.80 0.27x 2026-11-10 20:59 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $250 $384 1.54x 2026-11-10 20:23 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $250 $336 1.34x 2026-11-10 20:23 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) [IG:Szymonekk17\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/IG%3ASzymonekk17_) $250 $99.43 0.40x 2026-11-10 20:23 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $250 $78.52 0.31x 2026-11-10 20:23 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $250 $127 0.51x 2026-11-10 20:23 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) [IG:Szymonekk17\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/IG%3ASzymonekk17_) $250 $262 1.05x 2026-11-10 20:23 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $250 $59.52 0.24x 2026-11-10 18:25 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $250 $304 1.22x 2026-11-10 18:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $250 | 86.56% | 68 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 63.3% epic 0.1% #ffd700 13.8% Covert 1.2% gold 18.5% sunny 2.3% Immortal 0.9% best hit $1,499 (6.00x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.56 on average: an expected loss of $13.44 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt