---
title: "Party Mix case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Party Mix ($10.30) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.92% from 31 items with odds, observed 89.24% over 3,700 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/51
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:12Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Party Mix](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/51)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Party Mix

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/51?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/51?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/51) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/51?window=all)

Price · $10.30

Advertised RTP · 88.92% · EV $9.16 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.24% · 3,700 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.98% ±22.19 549 openings

7 days · 89.84% ±9.23 3,205 openings

30 days · 89.24% ±8.65 3,700 openings

since tracking started · 89.24% ±8.65 3,700 openings

58.0% 81.0% 104.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/51?window=24h) | 549 | 80.98% ±22.2 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/51?window=7d) | 3,205 | 89.84% ±9.23 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/51) | 3,700 | 89.24% ±8.65 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/51?window=all) | 3,700 | 89.24% ±8.65 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,712 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $664 | 3.6% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.62× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 943 | $315 | 3.6% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.02× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Violet Beadwork (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-violet-beadwork-field-tested) | 1 in 719 | $240 | 3.6% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.36× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 680 | $227 | 3.6% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 637 | $213 | 3.7% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 370 | $124 | 3.6% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 194 | $87.43 | 4.9% | 19 | 19.1 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 166 | $74.95 | 4.9% | 19 | 22.3 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $65.04 | 4.9% | 19 | 25.7 | 0.74× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $49.39 | 4.9% | 27 | 33.8 | 0.80× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 88 | $39.64 | 4.9% | 32 | 42.1 | 0.76× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $35.28 | 4.9% | 39 | 47.4 | 0.82× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $30.40 | 4.9% | 59 | 55.0 | 1.07× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $28.00 | 4.9% | 39 | 59.7 | 0.65× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $21.85 | 4.9% | 73 | 76.5 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-death-by-puppy-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $19.26 | 3.8% | 86 | 66.7 | 1.29× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $18.59 | 3.8% | 76 | 69.2 | 1.10× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $16.80 | 3.8% | 81 | 76.5 | 1.06× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $16.01 | 3.8% | 73 | 80.3 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $13.85 | 3.8% | 101 | 92.8 | 1.09× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $12.45 | 3.8% | 104 | 103.2 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $11.33 | 3.8% | 119 | 113.4 | 1.05× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $10.37 | 3.8% | 125 | 123.9 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 209 | $8.76 | 0.5% | 18 | 17.7 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-field-tested) | 1 in 189 | $7.92 | 0.5% | 18 | 19.6 | 0.92× |
| [MP7 \| Asterion (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $4.54 | 0.5% | 45 | 34.2 | 1.31× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $3.54 | 0.5% | 55 | 43.9 | 1.25× |
| [Negev \| Lionfish (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.66 | 0.5% | 240 | 235.5 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-choppa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.59 | 0.5% | 261 | 263.4 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-battle-scarred) | 10.2% | $0.41 | 0.5% | 365 | 379.1 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-field-tested) | 42.5% | $0.10 | 0.5% | 1,586 | 1578.5 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/51`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-minimal-wear) [J4ster](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/J4ster) $10.30 $749 72.70x 2026-11-04 19:12 UTC

[★ Karambit | Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-minimal-wear) [Joe Horsepuncher](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Joe%20Horsepuncher) $10.30 $664 64.45x 2026-11-10 12:38 UTC

[★ Karambit | Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.30 $664 64.45x 2026-11-06 18:47 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=51)

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-field-tested) Hidden $10.30 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) Hidden $10.30 $12.45 1.21x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-field-tested) [paulinka fortnite](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/paulinka%20fortnite) $10.30 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-field-tested) Hidden $10.30 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) [DoRo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DoRo) $10.30 $16.80 1.63x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-field-tested) Hidden $10.30 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC

[AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $10.30 $65.04 6.31x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-field-tested) [DoRo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DoRo) $10.30 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC

[UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) Hidden $10.30 $16.80 1.63x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-field-tested) [マッコ MTS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E3%83%9E%E3%83%83%E3%82%B3%20MTS) $10.30 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $10.30 | 88.92% | 31 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $10.30 | 88.87% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.5% Immortal 0.1% red 0.3% #ffd700 1.4% classified 14.1% mil spec 3.0% restricted 2.1% #d32ee6 1.8% Industrial Grade 2.8% pink 4.2% industrial 0.5% #777777 0.9% #8847ff 16.6% #4b69ff 49.6% best hit $749 (72.70x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.92 on average: an expected loss of $11.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt