---
title: "Aspiration case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Aspiration ($2.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.15% from 30 items with odds, observed 87.39% over 21.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611375
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Aspiration](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611375)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Aspiration

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611375?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611375?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611375) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611375?window=all)

Price · $2.50

Advertised RTP · 89.15% · EV $2.23 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.39% · 21.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.86% ±8.41 3,352 openings

7 days · 87.19% ±3.67 18K openings

30 days · 87.39% ±3.37 21.6K openings

since tracking started · 87.39% ±3.37 21.6K openings

79.0% 88.0% 97.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611375?window=24h) | 3,352 | 87.86% ±8.41 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611375?window=7d) | 18K | 87.19% ±3.67 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611375) | 21.6K | 87.39% ±3.37 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611375?window=all) | 21.6K | 87.39% ±3.37 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Flammable (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flammable-foil) | 1 in 1,124 | $94.05 | 3.8% | 19 | 19.3 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| ESL One Cologne 2014 (Red) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-esl-one-cologne-2014-red) | 1 in 1,042 | $87.47 | 3.8% | 21 | 20.8 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Astralis (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-foil-boston-2018) | 1 in 952 | $79.61 | 3.8% | 31 | 22.8 | 1.36× |
| [Sticker \| DD (Foil) \| London 2018 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dd-foil-london-2018) | 1 in 758 | $63.31 | 3.7% | 57 | 28.6 | 1.99× |
| [Sticker \| FalleN (Foil) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fallen-foil-krakow-2017) | 1 in 662 | $55.40 | 3.8% | 30 | 32.7 | 0.92× |
| [Sticker \| G2 Esports (Foil) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-g2-esports-foil-krakow-2017) | 1 in 483 | $40.36 | 3.7% | 37 | 44.9 | 0.82× |
| [Sticker \| B1ad3 \| Boston 2018 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-b1ad3-boston-2018) | 1 in 101 | $8.44 | 3.7% | 369 | 213.9 | 1.73× |
| [Sticker \| Basilisk (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-basilisk-foil) | 1 in 99 | $8.25 | 3.7% | 207 | 218.8 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| ESL \| Cologne 2015 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-esl-cologne-2015) | 1 in 96 | $7.99 | 3.7% | 212 | 226.0 | 0.94× |
| [Sticker \| Dragon (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-foil) | 1 in 85 | $7.11 | 3.7% | 384 | 253.9 | 1.51× |
| [Sticker \| Emperor (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-emperor-foil) | 1 in 83 | $6.92 | 3.7% | 230 | 260.9 | 0.88× |
| [Sticker \| Camper (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-camper-foil) | 1 in 72 | $6.01 | 3.7% | 269 | 300.5 | 0.90× |
| [Sticker \| Bosh (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bosh-holo) | 1 in 66 | $5.48 | 3.7% | 288 | 329.6 | 0.87× |
| [Sticker \| Big Clucks (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-big-clucks-foil) | 1 in 62 | $5.20 | 3.7% | 448 | 347.3 | 1.29× |
| [Sticker \| Bish (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bish-holo) | 1 in 62 | $5.19 | 3.7% | 298 | 348.0 | 0.86× |
| [Sticker \| Countdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-countdown-foil) | 1 in 43 | $5.05 | 5.2% | 355 | 500.5 | 0.71× |
| [Sticker \| Bash (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bash-holo) | 1 in 41 | $4.82 | 5.2% | 446 | 524.3 | 0.85× |
| [Sticker \| Tyloo (Foil) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tyloo-foil-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 39 | $4.51 | 5.2% | 525 | 560.5 | 0.94× |
| [Sticker \| Fnatic \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 38 | $4.47 | 5.2% | 385 | 565.5 | 0.68× |
| [Sticker \| Bullet Rain (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bullet-rain-foil) | 1 in 37 | $4.32 | 5.2% | 479 | 585.2 | 0.82× |
| [Sticker \| Aces High (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aces-high-holo) | 1 in 28 | $3.21 | 5.2% | 691 | 787.4 | 0.88× |
| [Sticker \| Good Game sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-good-game) | 1 in 109 | $2.26 | 0.9% | 470 | 198.9 | 2.36× |
| [Sticker \| Devouring Flame (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-devouring-flame-holo) | 1 in 106 | $2.21 | 0.9% | 211 | 203.5 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Boris (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boris-holo) | 1 in 76 | $1.58 | 0.9% | 277 | 284.5 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| Flashbang sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flashbang) | 1 in 51 | $1.05 | 0.9% | 504 | 428.1 | 1.18× |
| [Sticker \| Don't Worry (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dont-worry-holo) | 1 in 38 | $0.79 | 0.9% | 589 | 569.2 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| BukAWP sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bukawp) | 1 in 34 | $0.70 | 0.9% | 634 | 642.2 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| All Hail the King (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-all-hail-the-king-foil) | 1 in 27 | $0.56 | 0.9% | 792 | 802.8 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Countdown sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-countdown) | 1 in 15 | $0.31 | 0.9% | 4,339 | 1450.4 | 2.99× |
| [Sticker \| Camper sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-camper) | 50.3% | $0.22 | 5.0% | 8,070 | 10896.1 | 0.74× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/611375`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=611375)

[Sticker | Camper sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-camper) Hidden $2.50 $0.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[Sticker | Camper sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-camper) Hidden $2.50 $0.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[Sticker | Countdown sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-countdown) [toonix v2](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/toonix%20v2) $2.50 $0.31 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[Sticker | Camper sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-camper) Hidden $2.50 $0.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Sticker | Camper sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-camper) Hidden $2.50 $0.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Sticker | Camper sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-camper) [pilarixman skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/pilarixman%20skins.army) $2.50 $0.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Sticker | Emperor (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-emperor-foil) [potfur CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/potfur%20CS2.ME) $2.50 $6.92 2.77x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Sticker | Camper sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-camper) [Voltimus](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Voltimus) $2.50 $0.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Sticker | Aces High (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aces-high-holo) [toonix v2](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/toonix%20v2) $2.50 $3.21 1.28x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Sticker | ESL | Cologne 2015 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-esl-cologne-2015) [→●σѕкαя●←⭕⃤](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%86%92%E2%97%8F%CF%83%D1%95%D0%BA%CE%B1%D1%8F%E2%97%8F%E2%86%90%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A4) $2.50 $7.99 3.20x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 13:17 UTC | $2.50 | 89.15% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.50 | 88.95% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed exotic 4.6% #d32ce6 8.1% #8847ff 8.8% #4b69ff 67.5% pink 1.2% violet 1.5% Legendary 4.3% Remarkable 1.6% remarkable 2.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.15 on average: an expected loss of $10.85 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt