---
title: "Ensure case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ensure ($10.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.93% from 30 items with odds, observed 87.08% over 3,882 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611392
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Ensure](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611392)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Ensure

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611392?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611392?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611392) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611392?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 88.93% · EV $8.89 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.08% · 3,882 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.15% ±11.85 552 openings

7 days · 85.70% ±5.18 3,199 openings

30 days · 87.08% ±4.72 3,882 openings

since tracking started · 87.08% ±4.72 3,882 openings

72.5% 85.0% 97.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611392?window=24h) | 552 | 85.15% ±11.9 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611392?window=7d) | 3,199 | 85.70% ±5.18 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611392) | 3,882 | 87.08% ±4.72 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/611392?window=all) | 3,882 | 87.08% ±4.72 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,884 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| apEX (Foil) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apex-foil-cologne-2016) | 1 in 1,031 | $240 | 2.6% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| [Sticker \| ZywOo (Gold) \| Rio 2022 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zywoo-gold-rio-2022) | 1 in 515 | $121 | 2.6% | 10 | 7.5 | 1.33× |
| [Sticker \| rox (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rox-holo-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 415 | $96.88 | 2.6% | 7 | 9.4 | 0.75× |
| [Sticker \| m0NESY (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-m0nesy-gold-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 331 | $70.98 | 2.4% | 14 | 11.7 | 1.19× |
| [Sticker \| STYKO (Foil) \| London 2018 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-styko-foil-london-2018) | 1 in 296 | $63.31 | 2.4% | 8 | 13.1 | 0.61× |
| [Sticker \| Team Liquid (Holo) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-holo-cologne-2016) | 1 in 214 | $45.77 | 2.4% | 13 | 18.2 | 0.72× |
| [Sticker \| DeadFox (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-deadfox-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 175 | $37.42 | 2.4% | 7 | 22.3 | 0.31× |
| [Sticker \| DD \| Boston 2018 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dd-boston-2018) | 1 in 173 | $37.07 | 2.4% | 7 | 22.4 | 0.31× |
| [Sticker \| Team Dignitas \| Cologne 2016 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-cologne-2016) | 1 in 173 | $37.00 | 2.4% | 23 | 22.5 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| MOUZ (Gold) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-gold-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 172 | $36.96 | 2.4% | 23 | 22.5 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Hiko (Foil) \| London 2018 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hiko-foil-london-2018) | 1 in 172 | $36.73 | 2.4% | 34 | 22.6 | 1.50× |
| [Sticker \| Tyloo (Gold) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tyloo-gold-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 150 | $32.21 | 2.4% | 29 | 25.8 | 1.12× |
| [Sticker \| Team EnVyUs (Foil) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-envyus-foil-cologne-2016) | 1 in 129 | $27.67 | 2.4% | 24 | 30.1 | 0.80× |
| [Sticker \| s1mple \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-krakow-2017) | 1 in 128 | $27.37 | 2.4% | 26 | 30.4 | 0.85× |
| [Sticker \| Fnatic (Holo) \| Boston 2018 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-boston-2018) | 1 in 116 | $24.86 | 2.4% | 30 | 33.5 | 0.90× |
| [Sticker \| Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) | 1 in 95 | $20.27 | 2.4% | 40 | 41.1 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Foil) \| Berlin 2019 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-foil-berlin-2019) | 1 in 93 | $20.01 | 2.4% | 25 | 41.6 | 0.60× |
| [Sticker \| m0NESY (Gold) \| Paris 2023 sticker · #d2d2d2](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-m0nesy-gold-paris-2023) | 1 in 37 | $18.91 | 5.8% | 93 | 105.6 | 0.88× |
| [Sticker \| dexter (Holo) \| Shanghai 2024 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dexter-holo-shanghai-2024) | 1 in 35 | $17.83 | 5.8% | 28 | 112.0 | 0.25× |
| [Sticker \| Luminosity Gaming \| MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luminosity-gaming-mlg-columbus-2016) | 1 in 33 | $17.18 | 5.8% | 92 | 116.3 | 0.79× |
| [Sticker \| Miami Flow (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flow-holo) | 1 in 32 | $16.51 | 5.8% | 116 | 121.0 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| FURIA (Holo) \| Shanghai 2024 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-furia-holo-shanghai-2024) | 1 in 30 | $15.28 | 5.8% | 105 | 130.7 | 0.80× |
| [Sticker \| FURIA (Holo) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-furia-holo-katowice-2019) | 1 in 29 | $15.10 | 5.8% | 103 | 132.3 | 0.78× |
| [Sticker \| Akihabara Accept Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akihabara-accept-surf-ava-foil) | 1 in 23 | $12.03 | 5.8% | 111 | 166.0 | 0.67× |
| [Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) | 1 in 28 | $7.46 | 3.0% | 160 | 137.1 | 1.17× |
| [Sticker \| Battle Scarred sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $3.83 | 3.0% | 372 | 267.1 | 1.39× |
| [Sticker \| Ace Devil (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ace-devil-foil) | 1 in 14 | $3.74 | 3.0% | 417 | 273.5 | 1.52× |
| [Sticker \| Approaching Site (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-approaching-site-foil) | 13.3% | $1.98 | 3.0% | 266 | 516.6 | 0.51× |
| [Sticker \| Gold Nova (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-nova-holo) | 15.7% | $1.68 | 3.0% | 564 | 608.8 | 0.93× |
| [Sticker \| Bloodthirster (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bloodthirster-foil) | 21.1% | $1.31 | 3.1% | 1,135 | 818.5 | 1.39× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/611392`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=611392)

[Sticker | Miami Flow (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flow-holo) Hidden $10.00 $16.51 1.65x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[Sticker | Miami Flow (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flow-holo) Hidden $10.00 $16.51 1.65x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[Sticker | Gold Nova (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-nova-holo) [Eck0](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Eck0) $10.00 $1.68 0.17x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[Sticker | MOUZ (Gold) | Stockholm 2021 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-gold-stockholm-2021) Hidden $10.00 $36.96 3.70x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC

[Sticker | Hiko (Foil) | London 2018 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hiko-foil-london-2018) Hidden $10.00 $36.73 3.67x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC

[Sticker | Ace Devil (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ace-devil-foil) [sztywnawedka](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sztywnawedka) $10.00 $3.74 0.37x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC

[Sticker | Bloodthirster (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bloodthirster-foil) Hidden $10.00 $1.31 0.13x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC

[Sticker | Gold Nova (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-nova-holo) Hidden $10.00 $1.68 0.17x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC

[Sticker | Approaching Site (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-approaching-site-foil) [sztywnawedka](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sztywnawedka) $10.00 $1.98 0.20x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC

[Sticker | Luminosity Gaming | MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luminosity-gaming-mlg-columbus-2016) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $10.00 $17.18 1.72x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $10.00 | 88.93% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.00 | 88.93% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed exotic 14.9% #eb4b4b 1.4% pink 21.3% red 0.3% #8847ff 17.9% #d32ce6 8.7% #4b69ff 4.9% remarkable 7.6% #d2d2d2 2.7% violet 6.9% Legendary 13.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.93 on average: an expected loss of $11.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt