---
title: "Sunset case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sunset ($25.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.94% from 19 items with odds, observed 93.44% over 1,395 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/622
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Sunset](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/622)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Sunset

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/622?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/622?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/622) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/622?window=all)

Price · $25.00

Advertised RTP · 88.94% · EV $22.24 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.44% · 1,395 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 58.65% ±54.59 120 openings

7 days · 86.19% ±18.39 1,124 openings

30 days · 93.44% ±16.52 1,395 openings

since tracking started · 93.44% ±16.52 1,395 openings

3.5% 58.7% 114.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/622?window=24h) | 120 | 58.65% ±54.6 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/622?window=7d) | 1,124 | 86.19% ±18.4 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/622) | 1,395 | 93.44% ±16.5 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/622?window=all) | 1,395 | 93.44% ±16.5 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,401 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,124 | $1,615 | 6.5% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.60× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 362 | $524 | 6.5% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 352 | $508 | 6.5% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 246 | $355 | 6.5% | 10 | 5.7 | 1.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 158 | $229 | 6.5% | 9 | 8.8 | 1.02× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $172 | 6.5% | 14 | 11.8 | 1.19× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $135 | 6.5% | 7 | 14.9 | 0.47× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $112 | 6.5% | 18 | 18.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $73.38 | 6.5% | 20 | 27.6 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $48.84 | 8.1% | 33 | 51.6 | 0.64× |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $42.44 | 8.1% | 38 | 59.4 | 0.64× |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $42.26 | 8.1% | 50 | 59.7 | 0.84× |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $41.65 | 8.1% | 52 | 60.6 | 0.86× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $12.57 | 1.8% | 44 | 45.0 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $4.21 | 1.8% | 167 | 134.4 | 1.24× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) | 10.2% | $3.98 | 1.8% | 177 | 142.2 | 1.24× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 13.2% | $3.07 | 1.8% | 217 | 184.4 | 1.18× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-factory-new) | 20.5% | $1.98 | 1.8% | 271 | 287.6 | 0.94× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.14 | 0.1% | 267 | 280.2 | 0.95× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/622`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-battle-scarred) Hidden $25.00 $1,982 79.27x 2026-11-07 19:09 UTC

[SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-battle-scarred) [RadZioxS 33](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/RadZioxS%2033) $25.00 $1,982 79.27x 2026-11-02 23:33 UTC

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) [xxxxxxxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/xxxxxxxx) $25.00 $664 26.55x 2026-11-09 18:20 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) [Filipek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Filipek) $25.00 $661 26.44x 2026-11-07 11:12 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $661 26.44x 2026-11-06 12:55 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) [kick.com/RadmeR77](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kick.com%2FRadmeR77) $25.00 $661 26.44x 2026-11-04 15:00 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $661 26.44x 2026-11-02 23:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=622)

[PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-factory-new) [type shittttt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/type%20shittttt) $25.00 $1.98 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) [User0 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/User0%20skins.army) $25.00 $4.21 0.17x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-factory-new) Hidden $25.00 $1.98 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) Hidden $25.00 $48.84 1.95x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $0.14 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) [type shittttt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/type%20shittttt) $25.00 $0.14 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC

[XM1014 | Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $3.98 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-factory-new) [User0 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/User0%20skins.army) $25.00 $1.98 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC

[USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-factory-new) Hidden $25.00 $42.26 1.69x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[XM1014 | Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $3.98 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $25.00 | 88.94% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $25.00 | 88.89% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #d32ee6 0.1% restricted 18.4% covert 7.1% classified 1.1% covert knife 2.0% Restricted 4.3% Rare 23.2% pink 10.2% violet 13.2% mil spec 20.5% best hit $1,982 (79.27x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.94 on average: an expected loss of $11.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt