---
title: "Loreus case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Loreus ($50.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.84% from 24 items with odds, observed 96.15% over 443 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/623
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Loreus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/623)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Loreus

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/623?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/623?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/623) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/623?window=all)

Price · $50.00

Advertised RTP · 88.84% · EV $44.42 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.15% · 443 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 55 openings · below min

7 days · 88.88% ±17.21 330 openings

30 days · 96.15% ±14.85 443 openings

since tracking started · 96.15% ±14.85 443 openings

39.5% 82.8% 126.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/623?window=24h) | 55 | 82.89% ±42.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/623?window=7d) | 330 | 88.88% ±17.2 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/623) | 443 | 96.15% ±14.8 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/623?window=all) | 443 | 96.15% ±14.8 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 443 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) | 1 in 340 | $1,064 | 7.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 151 | $472 | 7.0% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $378 | 7.0% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $193 | 7.0% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $173 | 7.0% | 5 | 8.0 | 0.62× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $145 | 7.0% | 4 | 9.6 | 0.42× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $121 | 7.0% | 7 | 11.4 | 0.61× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $120 | 7.0% | 7 | 11.5 | 0.61× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $95.95 | 2.8% | 14 | 5.6 | 2.48× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $95.45 | 2.8% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.41× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $92.21 | 2.8% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $78.45 | 2.8% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.01× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $61.08 | 2.8% | 14 | 8.9 | 1.58× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $58.83 | 2.8% | 12 | 9.2 | 1.30× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $51.82 | 2.8% | 12 | 10.5 | 1.15× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Well-Worn) gloves · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $51.78 | 2.8% | 14 | 10.5 | 1.34× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $50.84 | 2.8% | 26 | 10.6 | 2.44× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $48.03 | 2.9% | 19 | 12.0 | 1.58× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $21.03 | 2.9% | 30 | 27.5 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $17.22 | 2.9% | 28 | 33.6 | 0.83× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $14.44 | 2.9% | 44 | 40.0 | 1.10× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $13.86 | 2.9% | 36 | 41.7 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) | 15.9% | $11.78 | 4.2% | 58 | 70.2 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.13 | 0.1% | 80 | 88.6 | 0.90× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/623`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 $1,168 23.35x 2026-11-04 01:10 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 $1,168 23.35x 2026-11-03 07:49 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) [Member](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Member) $50.00 $535 10.71x 2026-11-07 00:33 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.00 $535 10.71x 2026-11-05 13:53 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=623)

[AK-47 | Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) [smajku68](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/smajku68) $50.00 $11.78 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[USP-S | Orion (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-field-tested) [olszi997](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/olszi997) $50.00 $48.03 0.96x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.00 $0.13 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.00 $17.22 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) [olszi997](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/olszi997) $50.00 $14.44 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.00 $50.84 1.02x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $50.00 $0.13 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 $13.86 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:32 UTC

[SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $50.00 $145 2.90x 2026-11-11 12:32 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.00 $11.78 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $50.00 | 88.84% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $50.00 | 88.90% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 2.3% restricted 2.0% classified 31.3% covert 14.8% mil spec 2.4% #eb4b4b 2.4% light blue 9.0% red 15.9% #87c7ff 20.0% best hit $1,168 (23.35x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.84 on average: an expected loss of $11.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt