---
title: "Neptun case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Neptun ($100.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.82% from 18 items with odds, observed 77.32% over 602 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/624
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:12Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Neptun](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/624)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Neptun

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/624?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/624?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/624) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/624?window=all)

Price · $100.00

Advertised RTP · 88.82% · EV $88.82 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.32% · 602 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 63 openings · below min

7 days · 77.25% ±15.74 564 openings

30 days · 77.32% ±15.24 602 openings

since tracking started · 77.32% ±15.24 602 openings

32.0% 79.8% 127.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/624?window=24h) | 63 | 79.85% ±47.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/624?window=7d) | 564 | 77.25% ±15.7 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/624) | 602 | 77.32% ±15.2 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/624?window=all) | 602 | 77.32% ±15.2 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 612 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $1,466 | 8.3% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 192 | $1,410 | 8.3% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 127 | $932 | 8.3% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 74 | $543 | 8.3% | 4 | 8.3 | 0.48× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $438 | 8.3% | 7 | 10.3 | 0.68× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $279 | 8.3% | 16 | 16.1 | 1.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $209 | 7.3% | 21 | 19.1 | 1.10× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $207 | 7.3% | 16 | 19.2 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $192 | 7.3% | 22 | 20.7 | 1.06× |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $187 | 7.3% | 23 | 21.3 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $156 | 7.3% | 19 | 25.4 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $131 | 7.3% | 29 | 30.4 | 0.95× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $17.52 | 1.3% | 47 | 40.5 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $15.64 | 1.3% | 42 | 45.4 | 0.93× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $14.23 | 1.3% | 58 | 49.9 | 1.16× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) | 11.5% | $10.09 | 1.3% | 63 | 70.4 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 13.7% | $8.48 | 1.3% | 84 | 83.9 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) | 22.9% | $0.09 | 0.0% | 152 | 140.1 | 1.08× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/624`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) Hidden $100 $1,466 14.66x 2026-11-10 13:57 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) [kick.com/korcze](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kick.com%2Fkorcze) $100 $1,466 14.66x 2026-11-08 01:06 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) [JEZUS1337](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/JEZUS1337) $100 $1,466 14.66x 2026-11-07 12:37 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $100 $1,410 14.10x 2026-11-11 08:28 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) [Murlok](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Murlok) $100 $1,410 14.10x 2026-11-06 15:18 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) Hidden $100 $932 9.32x 2026-11-09 23:20 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) [Murlok](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Murlok) $100 $932 9.32x 2026-11-08 01:06 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) [Yenn???](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Yenn%3F%3F%3F) $100 $932 9.32x 2026-11-05 19:12 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $100 $932 9.32x 2026-11-05 17:51 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [ku](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ku) $100 $543 5.43x 2026-11-10 00:41 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=624)

[AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $100 $15.64 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $100 $10.09 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $100 $207 2.07x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $100 $10.09 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $100 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) Hidden $100 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[Tec-9 | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) Hidden $100 $17.52 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $100 $8.48 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) Hidden $100 $187 1.87x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) Hidden $100 $8.48 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $100 | 88.82% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 30.3% extraordinary 1.3% covert 17.0% restricted 9.1% #ffd700 2.6% #d32ee6 3.1% industrial 36.6% best hit $1,466 (14.66x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.82 on average: an expected loss of $11.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt