---
title: "BigBaller case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BigBaller ($500.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.51% from 23 items with odds, observed 82.82% over 180 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/626
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [BigBaller](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/626)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · BigBaller

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/626?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/626?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/626) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/626?window=all)

Price · $500.00

Advertised RTP · 86.51% · EV $432.53 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.82% · 180 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 85.57% ±34.45 138 openings

30 days · 82.82% ±30.17 180 openings

since tracking started · 82.82% ±30.17 180 openings

-0.5% 187.5% 375.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/626?window=24h) | 2 | 88.54% ±286.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/626?window=7d) | 138 | 85.57% ±34.5 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/626) | 180 | 82.82% ±30.2 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/626?window=all) | 180 | 82.82% ±30.2 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 180 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 625 | $17.5K | 6.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 261 | $7,303 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $3,732 | 6.5% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.48× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $2,336 | 6.5% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.39× |
| [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 80 | $2,247 | 6.5% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $2,156 | 6.5% | 5 | 2.3 | 2.14× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $1,991 | 6.5% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.58× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $1,699 | 6.5% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.34× |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $1,313 | 6.5% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.26× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $986 | 6.3% | 8 | 5.0 | 1.60× |
| [Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-katowice-2014) | 1 in 31 | $847 | 6.3% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $789 | 6.3% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.12× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $750 | 6.3% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $690 | 6.3% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.56× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $543 | 6.3% | 10 | 9.1 | 1.10× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 165 | $389 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $254 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $77.90 | 0.5% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $38.67 | 0.5% | 7 | 11.0 | 0.64× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $35.90 | 0.5% | 12 | 11.8 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $33.67 | 0.5% | 10 | 12.6 | 0.79× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $28.17 | 0.6% | 19 | 15.2 | 1.25× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-battle-scarred) | 35.0% | $0.36 | 0.0% | 66 | 63.0 | 1.05× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/626`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) Hidden $500 $3,732 7.46x 2026-11-07 14:25 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) [ku](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ku) $500 $3,732 7.46x 2026-11-03 00:16 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $500 $2,336 4.67x 2026-11-09 23:19 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) [⭕⃤ Kick/Lookass Cs](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A4%20%20Kick%2FLookass%20Cs) $500 $2,336 4.67x 2026-11-07 14:22 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) [ku](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ku) $500 $2,336 4.67x 2026-11-04 20:00 UTC

[Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $500 $2,247 4.49x 2026-11-04 20:58 UTC

[Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $500 $2,247 4.49x 2026-11-04 20:56 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $500 $2,156 4.31x 2026-11-08 14:26 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $500 $2,156 4.31x 2026-11-04 21:01 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) [ku](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ku) $500 $2,156 4.31x 2026-11-04 19:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=626)

[Sticker | Natus Vincere | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-katowice-2014) Hidden $500 $847 1.69x 2026-11-10 18:19 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $500 $38.67 0.08x 2026-11-10 18:19 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) Hidden $500 $28.17 0.06x 2026-11-10 01:01 UTC

[AUG | Amber Slipstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-battle-scarred) [neexcsgo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/neexcsgo) $500 $0.36 0.00x 2026-11-10 01:01 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $500 $543 1.09x 2026-11-10 01:01 UTC

[MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-factory-new) [neexcsgo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/neexcsgo) $500 $789 1.58x 2026-11-10 01:01 UTC

[AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) Hidden $500 $33.67 0.07x 2026-11-10 01:01 UTC

[AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) [neexcsgo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/neexcsgo) $500 $690 1.38x 2026-11-10 01:01 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $500 $986 1.97x 2026-11-10 01:01 UTC

[AUG | Amber Slipstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-battle-scarred) [neexcsgo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/neexcsgo) $500 $0.36 0.00x 2026-11-10 01:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $500 | 86.51% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.2% extraordinary 4.6% remarkable 1.2% covert 25.4% classified 14.1% high 3.2% gold 3.6% #d32ee6 6.1% restricted 6.6% mil spec 35.0% best hit $3,732 (7.46x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.51 on average: an expected loss of $13.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt