---
title: "Neex case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Neex ($40.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.92% from 37 items with odds, observed 95.39% over 853 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630127
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Neex](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630127)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Neex

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630127?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630127?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630127) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630127?window=all)

Price · $40.00

Advertised RTP · 88.92% · EV $35.57 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.39% · 853 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 110.13% ±42.83 121 openings

7 days · 97.10% ±18.42 687 openings

30 days · 95.39% ±16.55 853 openings

since tracking started · 95.39% ±16.55 853 openings

66.5% 110.0% 153.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630127?window=24h) | 121 | 110.13% ±42.8 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630127?window=7d) | 687 | 97.10% ±18.4 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630127) | 853 | 95.39% ±16.6 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630127?window=all) | 853 | 95.39% ±16.6 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 855 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 3,226 | $2,012 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 2,564 | $1,599 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,033 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,235 | $766 | 1.7% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 980 | $612 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 980 | $611 | 1.8% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $520 | 1.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 654 | $406 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.53× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 649 | $404 | 1.7% | 5 | 1.3 | 3.80× |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 176 | $353 | 5.6% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.41× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 163 | $326 | 5.6% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.14× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 139 | $278 | 5.6% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.81× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $221 | 5.6% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 107 | $214 | 5.6% | 2 | 8.0 | 0.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 106 | $211 | 5.6% | 8 | 8.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $171 | 5.6% | 8 | 10.0 | 0.80× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $145 | 5.5% | 8 | 11.5 | 0.70× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 73 | $141 | 5.5% | 8 | 11.8 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $134 | 5.5% | 12 | 12.4 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $95.80 | 5.5% | 13 | 17.3 | 0.75× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $95.77 | 5.5% | 15 | 17.3 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $75.79 | 1.4% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.20× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $73.57 | 1.4% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.34× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 132 | $67.95 | 1.4% | 15 | 6.5 | 2.31× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 128 | $66.12 | 1.4% | 3 | 6.7 | 0.45× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-factory-new) | 1 in 93 | $47.70 | 1.4% | 7 | 9.2 | 0.76× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 1 in 89 | $45.66 | 1.4% | 7 | 9.6 | 0.73× |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 82 | $42.02 | 1.4% | 13 | 10.5 | 1.24× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $40.11 | 1.4% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 129 | $34.60 | 0.8% | 8 | 6.6 | 1.21× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 114 | $30.55 | 0.8% | 16 | 7.5 | 2.14× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $5.05 | 0.8% | 47 | 45.3 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.62 | 0.8% | 66 | 49.5 | 1.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $4.20 | 0.8% | 63 | 54.5 | 1.16× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 11.4% | $2.34 | 0.8% | 99 | 97.7 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) | 12.9% | $2.08 | 0.8% | 95 | 110.0 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) | 34.1% | $0.78 | 0.7% | 282 | 291.2 | 0.97× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/630127`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) Hidden $40.00 $1,126 28.15x 2026-11-09 15:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) Hidden $40.00 $795 19.88x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) Hidden $40.00 $766 19.16x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [słodki lisek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/s%C5%82odki%20lisek) $40.00 $712 17.81x 2026-11-03 15:12 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [﷽﷽﷽﷽﷽﷽﷽﷽﷽﷽](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%EF%B7%BD%EF%B7%BD%EF%B7%BD%EF%B7%BD%EF%B7%BD%EF%B7%BD%EF%B7%BD%EF%B7%BD%EF%B7%BD%EF%B7%BD) $40.00 $667 16.68x 2026-11-10 13:59 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) [Benjamin Netanyahu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Benjamin%20Netanyahu) $40.00 $637 15.92x 2026-11-10 01:20 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $40.00 $611 15.27x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=630127)

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) [type shittttt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/type%20shittttt) $40.00 $4.20 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) [User0 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/User0%20skins.army) $40.00 $5.05 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) Hidden $40.00 $766 19.16x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC

[Tec-9 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-minimal-wear) [User0 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/User0%20skins.army) $40.00 $2.34 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) Hidden $40.00 $0.78 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) Hidden $40.00 $4.62 0.12x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $40.00 $611 15.27x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) [type shittttt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/type%20shittttt) $40.00 $0.78 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) Hidden $40.00 $4.20 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) Hidden $40.00 $75.79 1.89x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $40.00 | 88.92% | 37 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $40.00 | 89.05% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 11.7% classified 4.5% covert knife 0.2% #d32ee6 1.6% #ffd700 1.3% Immortal 1.2% Ancient 0.7% red 1.3% Restricted 0.8% restricted 12.0% violet 6.4% blue 11.4% Rare 12.9% #8847ff 34.1% best hit $1,126 (28.15x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.92 on average: an expected loss of $11.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt