---
title: "TokioX case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "TokioX ($16.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.81% from 35 items with odds, observed 86.28% over 2,286 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630149
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [TokioX](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630149)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · TokioX

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630149?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630149?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630149) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630149?window=all)

Price · $16.00

Advertised RTP · 88.81% · EV $14.21 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.28% · 2,286 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.63% ±19.58 309 openings

7 days · 87.52% ±8.06 1,822 openings

30 days · 86.28% ±7.20 2,286 openings

since tracking started · 86.28% ±7.20 2,286 openings

69.5% 89.8% 110.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630149?window=24h) | 309 | 89.63% ±19.6 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630149?window=7d) | 1,822 | 87.52% ±8.06 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630149) | 2,286 | 86.28% ±7.20 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/630149?window=all) | 2,286 | 86.28% ±7.20 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,286 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $992 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $566 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,333 | $312 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 901 | $209 | 1.6% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 885 | $207 | 1.6% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 709 | $165 | 1.6% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.86× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 253 | $106 | 2.9% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $92.64 | 2.9% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 190 | $79.49 | 2.9% | 13 | 12.0 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $54.86 | 2.9% | 24 | 17.4 | 1.38× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $51.25 | 2.9% | 17 | 18.7 | 0.91× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $50.15 | 2.9% | 18 | 19.1 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $45.29 | 2.9% | 18 | 21.1 | 0.85× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 108 | $45.16 | 2.9% | 11 | 21.2 | 0.52× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $43.60 | 2.9% | 32 | 21.9 | 1.46× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 93 | $38.94 | 2.9% | 22 | 24.6 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $36.41 | 2.9% | 21 | 26.2 | 0.80× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $30.17 | 6.8% | 82 | 73.5 | 1.12× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $29.01 | 6.8% | 83 | 76.4 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $24.62 | 6.8% | 86 | 90.1 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $23.50 | 6.8% | 100 | 94.4 | 1.06× |
| [Chem-Haz Capitaine \| Gendarmerie Nationale agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/chem-haz-capitaine-gendarmerie-nationale) | 1 in 23 | $21.97 | 6.8% | 96 | 100.9 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $17.13 | 6.8% | 145 | 129.5 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 103 | $14.88 | 1.0% | 20 | 22.2 | 0.90× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $13.38 | 1.0% | 24 | 24.7 | 0.97× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $11.57 | 1.0% | 28 | 28.5 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $9.08 | 1.0% | 37 | 36.4 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $8.70 | 1.0% | 43 | 37.9 | 1.13× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $7.68 | 1.0% | 44 | 43.0 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $7.13 | 1.0% | 51 | 46.3 | 1.10× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $6.86 | 1.0% | 46 | 48.1 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $4.63 | 1.0% | 76 | 71.3 | 1.07× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) | 12.5% | $2.93 | 2.6% | 265 | 286.1 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 17.1% | $2.15 | 2.6% | 406 | 389.9 | 1.04× |
| [Charm \| Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) | 20.7% | $1.76 | 2.6% | 450 | 473.8 | 0.95× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/630149`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=630149)

[MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) Hidden $16.00 $45.16 2.82x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-factory-new) [JARO-\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/JARO-_-) $16.00 $30.17 1.89x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $16.00 $7.13 0.45x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) Hidden $16.00 $2.93 0.18x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) Hidden $16.00 $17.13 1.07x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) [OLE1KK](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/OLE1KK) $16.00 $2.93 0.18x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) [johannez littman](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/johannez%20littman) $16.00 $29.01 1.81x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) [spoconajula skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/spoconajula%20skins.army) $16.00 $2.15 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC

[MAC-10 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.00 $92.64 5.79x 2026-11-11 18:17 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) Hidden $16.00 $2.15 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $16.00 | 88.81% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.0% covert 4.3% Mil Spec Grade 0.5% restricted 34.0% pink 5.2% mil spec 3.0% red 1.1% Ancient 1.1% classified 20.7% Legendary 4.6% blue 4.7% #d32ce6 20.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.81 on average: an expected loss of $11.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt