---
title: "Saloon case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Saloon ($3.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.09% from 32 items with odds, observed 84.43% over 13K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/646558
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Saloon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/646558)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Saloon

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/646558?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/646558?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/646558) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/646558?window=all)

Price · $3.00

Advertised RTP · 85.09% · EV $2.55 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.43% · 13K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.53% ±7.57 1,344 openings

7 days · 84.01% ±2.72 10.4K openings

30 days · 84.43% ±2.44 13K openings

since tracking started · 84.43% ±2.44 13K openings

73.5% 81.8% 90.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/646558?window=24h) | 1,344 | 81.53% ±7.57 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/646558?window=7d) | 10.4K | 84.01% ±2.72 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/646558) | 13K | 84.43% ±2.44 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/646558?window=all) | 13K | 84.43% ±2.44 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $135 | 1.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $95.67 | 1.0% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.78× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 3,846 | $95.24 | 1.0% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $93.74 | 1.0% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.14× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 3,226 | $81.76 | 1.0% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 2,041 | $51.17 | 1.0% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.79× |
| [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $41.86 | 1.0% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,250 | $31.28 | 1.0% | 12 | 10.4 | 1.16× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-factory-new) | 1 in 1,639 | $21.87 | 0.5% | 8 | 7.9 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-field-tested) | 1 in 1,351 | $17.77 | 0.5% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.83× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,333 | $17.69 | 0.5% | 13 | 9.7 | 1.34× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,316 | $17.31 | 0.5% | 7 | 9.9 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,282 | $16.89 | 0.5% | 8 | 10.1 | 0.79× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 1,176 | $15.65 | 0.5% | 12 | 11.0 | 1.09× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 1,149 | $15.21 | 0.5% | 9 | 11.3 | 0.80× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-field-tested) | 1 in 1,149 | $15.15 | 0.5% | 14 | 11.3 | 1.24× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 980 | $12.99 | 0.5% | 11 | 13.2 | 0.83× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 971 | $12.79 | 0.5% | 14 | 13.4 | 1.05× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 800 | $10.60 | 0.5% | 17 | 16.2 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 1 in 680 | $9.03 | 0.5% | 12 | 19.1 | 0.63× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-factory-new) | 1 in 578 | $7.65 | 0.5% | 22 | 22.5 | 0.98× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $5.43 | 4.5% | 294 | 272.0 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| XOXO (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-xoxo-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $4.65 | 4.5% | 308 | 317.6 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $4.63 | 4.5% | 345 | 319.0 | 1.08× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $4.42 | 4.5% | 315 | 334.2 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $4.40 | 4.5% | 339 | 335.6 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Panther (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $4.02 | 4.5% | 351 | 367.4 | 0.96× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $3.98 | 4.5% | 350 | 371.1 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $3.95 | 4.5% | 388 | 373.9 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 15.5% | $2.73 | 16.6% | 2,071 | 2013.3 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 22.2% | $1.91 | 16.6% | 2,831 | 2877.6 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $1.06 | 16.6% | 5,197 | 5195.0 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/646558`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=646558)

[StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.00 $1.06 0.35x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $2.73 0.91x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $2.73 0.91x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC

[StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) [Wiktor21389o](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Wiktor21389o) $3.00 $1.06 0.35x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC

[StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.00 $1.06 0.35x 2026-11-11 17:53 UTC

[StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.00 $1.06 0.35x 2026-11-11 17:53 UTC

[StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) [❌K4FAR™ “skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%9D%8CK4FAR%E2%84%A2%20%E2%80%9Cskins.army%E2%80%9D) $3.00 $1.06 0.35x 2026-11-11 17:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $2.73 0.91x 2026-11-11 17:42 UTC

[AK-47 | Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $1.91 0.64x 2026-11-11 17:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) [Dzeki97](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Dzeki97) $3.00 $1.06 0.35x 2026-11-11 17:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.00 | 85.09% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.0% covert 0.1% classified 2.8% covert knife 0.0% Mythical 15.6% restricted 3.1% Restricted 0.1% #8847ff 43.0% pink 3.0% #d32ee6 2.4% blue 2.5% mil spec 2.6% Mil Spec Grade 2.8% Rare 22.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.09 on average: an expected loss of $14.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt