--- title: "Excalibur case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Excalibur ($700.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.10% from 30 items with odds, observed 82.80% over 61 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647192 rendered: 2026-11-11T18:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Excalibur](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647192) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Excalibur A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647192?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647192?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647192) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647192?window=all) Price · $700.00 Advertised RTP · 85.10% · EV $595.68 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.80% · 61 openings, odds method Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 57 openings · below min 30 days · 61 openings · below min since tracking started · 61 openings · below min 28.0% 82.3% 136.5% **Small sample.** 61 openings and 16.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647192?window=24h) | 6 | 82.27% ±53.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647192?window=7d) | 57 | 83.79% ±17.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647192) | 61 | 82.80% ±16.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647192?window=all) | 61 | 82.80% ±16.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 61 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $5,347 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 549 | $3,212 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 478 | $2,808 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 442 | $2,591 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 395 | $2,313 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 382 | $2,234 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 352 | $2,065 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $1,777 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 88 | $1,720 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 74 | $1,450 | 3.3% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $1,432 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $1,346 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $1,337 | 3.8% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.94× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $1,332 | 3.8% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.93× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $975 | 3.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $856 | 3.8% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-katowice-2014) | 1 in 37 | $847 | 3.8% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.84× | | [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $805 | 3.8% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $753 | 3.8% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.64× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $752 | 3.8% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $742 | 3.8% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $731 | 3.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $630 | 4.8% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $535 | 4.8% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× | | [USP-S \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $499 | 4.8% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $486 | 4.8% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $470 | 4.8% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.34× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $318 | 4.8% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.36× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 12.9% | $222 | 4.8% | 12 | 7.9 | 1.52× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 16.4% | $179 | 4.9% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/647192`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) [FilipeQx](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/FilipeQx) $700 $1,777 2.54x 2026-11-09 17:32 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $700 $1,450 2.07x 2026-11-09 17:32 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $700 $1,450 2.07x 2026-11-04 21:04 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $700 $1,346 1.92x 2026-11-08 21:46 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $700 $1,337 1.91x 2026-11-10 17:29 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $700 $1,337 1.91x 2026-11-05 20:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) Hidden $700 $1,332 1.90x 2026-11-11 01:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) [ku](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ku) $700 $1,332 1.90x 2026-11-04 21:04 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) [FilipeQx](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/FilipeQx) $700 $975 1.39x 2026-11-09 17:32 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-katowice-2014) Hidden $700 $847 1.21x 2026-11-09 17:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=647192) [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $700 $470 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $700 $179 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) Hidden $700 $1,332 1.90x 2026-11-11 01:21 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) Hidden $700 $222 0.32x 2026-11-11 01:21 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $700 $753 1.08x 2026-11-11 01:21 UTC [USP-S | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) [ku](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ku) $700 $499 0.71x 2026-11-11 01:21 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) Hidden $700 $222 0.32x 2026-11-10 18:19 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-factory-new) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $700 $486 0.69x 2026-11-10 18:19 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $700 $1,337 1.91x 2026-11-10 17:29 UTC [M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $700 $805 1.15x 2026-11-10 17:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $700 | 85.10% | 30 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 1.5% classified 7.9% covert 39.7% #ffd700 2.9% restricted 8.5% sunny 8.4% high 2.7% gold 3.0% rare 3.0% extraordinary 5.9% Immortal 16.4% best hit $1,777 (2.54x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.10 on average: an expected loss of $14.90 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt