---
title: "Blackbeard case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Blackbeard ($130.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.33% from 30 items with odds, observed 91.49% over 418 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647197
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Blackbeard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647197)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Blackbeard

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647197?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647197?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647197) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647197?window=all)

Price · $130.00

Advertised RTP · 85.33% · EV $110.92 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.49% · 418 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 16 openings · below min

7 days · 94.21% ±7.98 329 openings

30 days · 91.49% ±7.08 418 openings

since tracking started · 91.49% ±7.08 418 openings

84.0% 126.3% 168.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647197?window=24h) | 16 | 131.83% ±36.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647197?window=7d) | 329 | 94.21% ±7.98 | +2.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647197) | 418 | 91.49% ±7.08 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647197?window=all) | 418 | 91.49% ±7.08 | +1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 418 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Factory New) gloves · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-factory-new) | 1 in 2,381 | $1,289 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,220 | $656 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,220 | $653 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,205 | $649 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,163 | $620 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 1,087 | $584 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $537 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 943 | $507 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Negev \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 166 | $498 | 2.7% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.59× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 157 | $473 | 2.7% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-field-tested) | 1 in 149 | $449 | 2.7% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 145 | $434 | 2.7% | 6 | 2.9 | 2.07× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 109 | $328 | 2.7% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 102 | $305 | 2.7% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $261 | 2.7% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $205 | 4.8% | 16 | 10.9 | 1.46× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $192 | 4.8% | 11 | 11.7 | 0.94× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $181 | 4.8% | 11 | 12.4 | 0.89× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $174 | 4.8% | 12 | 12.8 | 0.93× |
| [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $174 | 4.8% | 13 | 12.9 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $166 | 4.8% | 11 | 13.5 | 0.82× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $149 | 4.8% | 22 | 15.0 | 1.47× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $120 | 5.4% | 19 | 20.8 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $112 | 5.4% | 20 | 22.3 | 0.90× |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $84.81 | 5.4% | 32 | 29.6 | 1.08× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $76.76 | 5.4% | 26 | 32.7 | 0.80× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $66.83 | 5.4% | 29 | 37.5 | 0.77× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $60.14 | 5.4% | 40 | 41.7 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 10.5% | $57.06 | 5.4% | 48 | 44.0 | 1.09× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-battle-scarred) | 17.7% | $34.65 | 5.5% | 75 | 73.8 | 1.02× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/647197`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $130 $656 5.05x 2026-11-10 13:58 UTC

[MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-battle-scarred) [FilipeQx](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/FilipeQx) $130 $620 4.77x 2026-11-04 17:21 UTC

[MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-battle-scarred) Hidden $130 $620 4.77x 2026-11-04 17:12 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-field-tested) Hidden $130 $584 4.49x 2026-11-04 23:47 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) [FilipeQx](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/FilipeQx) $130 $507 3.90x 2026-11-04 17:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=647197)

[★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) [Kinzzami](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kinzzami) $130 $174 1.34x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [Zazazaza❤️❤ skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Zazazaza%E2%9D%A4%EF%B8%8F%E2%9D%A4%20%20skins.army) $130 $60.14 0.46x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC

[AK-47 | X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) Hidden $130 $434 3.34x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $130 $174 1.34x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $130 $57.06 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[AK-47 | X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) Hidden $130 $434 3.34x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $130 $328 2.52x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[FAMAS | Spitfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $130 $84.81 0.65x 2026-11-11 03:35 UTC

[P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) Hidden $130 $57.06 0.44x 2026-11-11 03:35 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-battle-scarred) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $130 $34.65 0.27x 2026-11-11 03:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $130 | 85.33% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #eb4b4b 0.0% covert 29.8% #d32ee6 0.1% extraordinary 17.8% restricted 7.2% #4b69ff 0.6% covert knife 4.2% classified 20.2% mil spec 4.2% #ffd700 3.0% gold 13.1% best hit $656 (5.05x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.33 on average: an expected loss of $14.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt