---
title: "Space Vault case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Space Vault ($215.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.17% from 36 items with odds, observed 90.44% over 194 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647416
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Space Vault](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647416)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Space Vault

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647416?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647416?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647416) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647416?window=all)

Price · $215.00

Advertised RTP · 85.17% · EV $183.11 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.44% · 194 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 22 openings · below min

7 days · 92.05% ±9.94 187 openings

30 days · 90.44% ±9.75 194 openings

since tracking started · 90.44% ±9.75 194 openings

58.0% 87.5% 117.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647416?window=24h) | 22 | 87.49% ±29.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647416?window=7d) | 187 | 92.05% ±9.94 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647416) | 194 | 90.44% ±9.75 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/647416?window=all) | 194 | 90.44% ±9.75 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 194 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) | 1 in 746 | $1,192 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 730 | $1,166 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 625 | $1,001 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $801 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $800 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 156 | $580 | 2.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 151 | $561 | 2.0% | 5 | 1.3 | 3.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 149 | $554 | 2.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 146 | $542 | 2.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 137 | $510 | 2.0% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.12× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 137 | $508 | 2.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $501 | 2.0% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.09× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $425 | 3.8% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.90× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $380 | 3.8% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $358 | 3.8% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.33× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $332 | 3.8% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.74× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $321 | 3.8% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $306 | 3.8% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.69× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $291 | 3.8% | 8 | 4.6 | 1.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $266 | 3.8% | 5 | 5.0 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $261 | 3.8% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.37× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $249 | 3.8% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.56× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $222 | 3.8% | 6 | 6.0 | 0.99× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $206 | 3.1% | 10 | 5.3 | 1.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $204 | 3.1% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.13× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $198 | 3.1% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $185 | 3.1% | 2 | 5.9 | 0.34× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $169 | 3.1% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.24× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $158 | 3.1% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.16× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $146 | 3.1% | 11 | 7.5 | 1.47× |
| [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $131 | 3.1% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.84× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $130 | 3.1% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $108 | 3.1% | 9 | 10.1 | 0.89× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $86.08 | 3.1% | 11 | 12.7 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $80.01 | 3.1% | 8 | 13.6 | 0.59× |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-field-tested) | 19.5% | $29.34 | 3.1% | 35 | 37.9 | 0.92× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/647416`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $215 $561 2.61x 2026-11-10 14:01 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $215 $561 2.61x 2026-11-09 18:30 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [qnskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/qnskins.army) $215 $561 2.61x 2026-11-05 20:12 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $215 $561 2.61x 2026-11-05 20:03 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [aimstarooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/aimstarooo) $215 $561 2.61x 2026-11-05 11:07 UTC

[M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) Hidden $215 $554 2.58x 2026-11-07 04:45 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [aimstarooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/aimstarooo) $215 $542 2.52x 2026-11-10 15:38 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [adamnicho](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/adamnicho) $215 $510 2.37x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $215 $510 2.37x 2026-11-08 18:02 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $215 $510 2.37x 2026-11-07 04:45 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=647416)

[Nova | Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) Hidden $215 $131 0.61x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[USP-S | Orange Anolis (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-field-tested) [G-E-I-T](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/G-E-I-T) $215 $29.34 0.14x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) Hidden $215 $204 0.95x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[USP-S | Orange Anolis (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-field-tested) Hidden $215 $29.34 0.14x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $215 $204 0.95x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) Hidden $215 $291 1.36x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC

[AK-47 | Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) Hidden $215 $185 0.86x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $215 $222 1.03x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) Hidden $215 $80.01 0.37x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $215 $169 0.79x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $215 | 85.17% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 5.3% covert 28.2% gold 4.3% restricted 22.1% extraordinary 10.8% sunny 1.8% Covert 2.2% red 2.6% #8847ff 2.6% Immortal 2.7% pink 5.8% #ffd700 3.3% covert knife 3.8% violet 4.3% best hit $561 (2.61x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.17 on average: an expected loss of $14.83 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt