---
title: "Lynx case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Lynx ($2.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.85% from 45 items with odds, observed 89.73% over 31.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/715001
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Lynx](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/715001)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Lynx

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/715001?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/715001?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/715001) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/715001?window=all)

Price · $2.50

Advertised RTP · 88.85% · EV $2.22 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.73% · 31.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 6.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.08% ±6.56 6,162 openings

7 days · 89.80% ±3.17 27.1K openings

30 days · 89.73% ±2.94 31.7K openings

since tracking started · 89.73% ±2.94 31.7K openings

79.0% 86.3% 93.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/715001?window=24h) | 6,162 | 86.08% ±6.56 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/715001?window=7d) | 27.1K | 89.80% ±3.17 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/715001) | 31.7K | 89.73% ±2.94 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/715001?window=all) | 31.7K | 89.73% ±2.94 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,571 | $185 | 2.3% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $127 | 2.3% | 13 | 13.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $104 | 2.3% | 20 | 15.9 | 1.26× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 1,299 | $66.97 | 2.3% | 22 | 24.4 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $51.70 | 2.3% | 27 | 31.7 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 990 | $51.41 | 2.3% | 34 | 32.0 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 746 | $38.65 | 2.3% | 46 | 42.5 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 599 | $31.09 | 2.3% | 45 | 53.0 | 0.85× |
| [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-field-tested) | 1 in 524 | $27.21 | 2.3% | 50 | 60.6 | 0.83× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 485 | $25.16 | 2.3% | 40 | 65.4 | 0.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 358 | $20.19 | 2.5% | 86 | 88.5 | 0.97× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 332 | $18.70 | 2.5% | 94 | 95.5 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 310 | $17.44 | 2.5% | 90 | 102.5 | 0.88× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 244 | $13.76 | 2.5% | 119 | 129.8 | 0.92× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) | 1 in 239 | $13.49 | 2.5% | 148 | 132.6 | 1.12× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 238 | $13.41 | 2.5% | 122 | 133.2 | 0.92× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) | 1 in 221 | $12.45 | 2.5% | 131 | 143.4 | 0.91× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) | 1 in 195 | $11.01 | 2.5% | 143 | 162.4 | 0.88× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 129 | $7.24 | 2.5% | 235 | 246.8 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $6.34 | 2.5% | 278 | 282.0 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $6.33 | 2.5% | 284 | 282.4 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 104 | $5.86 | 2.5% | 328 | 304.9 | 1.08× |
| [AUG \| Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $5.62 | 2.5% | 278 | 317.9 | 0.87× |
| [P90 \| Attack Vector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $5.36 | 2.5% | 309 | 333.4 | 0.93× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $5.16 | 2.5% | 346 | 346.4 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $4.81 | 3.0% | 404 | 433.7 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $4.46 | 3.0% | 382 | 467.6 | 0.82× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $4.11 | 3.0% | 533 | 507.6 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $3.93 | 3.0% | 516 | 530.8 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $3.83 | 3.0% | 520 | 544.7 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $2.90 | 3.0% | 763 | 719.2 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $2.73 | 3.0% | 758 | 764.0 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $2.68 | 3.0% | 757 | 778.2 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 152 | $2.49 | 0.7% | 205 | 208.1 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-battle-scarred) | 1 in 128 | $2.09 | 0.7% | 226 | 247.8 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $1.77 | 0.7% | 295 | 292.8 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 102 | $1.66 | 0.7% | 298 | 312.2 | 0.95× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $1.31 | 0.7% | 372 | 395.6 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $1.23 | 0.7% | 451 | 421.3 | 1.07× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 1 in 74 | $1.21 | 0.7% | 406 | 428.3 | 0.95× |
| [MAG-7 \| Copper Coated (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-coated-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $0.89 | 0.7% | 620 | 582.2 | 1.06× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $0.89 | 0.7% | 528 | 582.2 | 0.91× |
| [AUG \| Ricochet (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-battle-scarred) | 17.6% | $0.35 | 2.8% | 5,575 | 5589.8 | 1.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-field-tested) | 17.6% | $0.35 | 2.8% | 5,578 | 5589.8 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 28.0% | $0.22 | 2.8% | 9,242 | 8880.7 | 1.04× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/715001`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) Hidden $2.50 $191 76.50x 2026-11-05 22:48 UTC

[Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) [Kocurek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kocurek) $2.50 $191 76.50x 2026-11-05 11:14 UTC

[Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) Hidden $2.50 $191 76.50x 2026-11-04 22:03 UTC

[Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) [janek muzykant](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/janek%20muzykant) $2.50 $191 76.50x 2026-11-04 20:55 UTC

[Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) Hidden $2.50 $191 76.50x 2026-11-04 08:38 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.50 $186 74.32x 2026-11-06 08:34 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [świętyFLESZodALI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%C5%9Bwi%C4%99tyFLESZodALI) $2.50 $186 74.32x 2026-11-06 07:48 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.50 $186 74.32x 2026-11-03 18:44 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.50 $185 74.18x 2026-11-09 19:31 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [co ty mi tu PITU PITU](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/co%20ty%20mi%20tu%20PITU%20PITU) $2.50 $185 74.18x 2026-11-09 17:18 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=715001)

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $2.50 $0.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) [᲼᲼᲼᲼᲼᲼᲼](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E1%B2%BC%E1%B2%BC%E1%B2%BC%E1%B2%BC%E1%B2%BC%E1%B2%BC%E1%B2%BC) $2.50 $2.73 1.09x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [GodLikeRoman skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/GodLikeRoman%20skins.army) $2.50 $0.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.50 $2.73 1.09x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [DziK.](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DziK.) $2.50 $0.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [djhazel](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/djhazel) $2.50 $0.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[AUG | Ricochet (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-battle-scarred) [RZCrt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/RZCrt) $2.50 $0.35 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[AUG | Ricochet (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-battle-scarred) [ass](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ass) $2.50 $0.35 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[M4A1-S | Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) [RZCrt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/RZCrt) $2.50 $4.46 1.78x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-field-tested) [ass](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ass) $2.50 $0.35 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 13:17 UTC | $2.50 | 88.85% | 45 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.50 | 88.99% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.0% classified 7.4% covert 0.4% Covert 0.1% restricted 11.4% pink 0.3% #d32ee6 1.6% blue 1.8% #8847ff 3.5% Mythical 2.4% uncommon 0.7% violet 0.8% Rare 0.9% #4b69ff 38.1% #d32ce6 1.3% mil spec 1.4% Uncommon 28.0% best hit $191 (76.50x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.85 on average: an expected loss of $11.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt