---
title: "Santiago case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Santiago ($7.77) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.90% from 21 items with odds, observed 84.78% over 6,691 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/753415
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Santiago](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/753415)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Santiago

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/753415?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/753415?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/753415) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/753415?window=all)

Price · $7.77

Advertised RTP · 88.90% · EV $6.91 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.78% · 6,691 openings, odds method

Variance · 20.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 37 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.83% ±31.88 755 openings

7 days · 83.36% ±11.52 5,781 openings

30 days · 84.78% ±10.71 6,691 openings

since tracking started · 84.78% ±10.71 6,691 openings

51.5% 84.0% 116.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/753415?window=24h) | 755 | 83.83% ±31.9 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/753415?window=7d) | 5,781 | 83.36% ±11.5 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/753415) | 6,691 | 84.78% ±10.7 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/753415?window=all) | 6,691 | 84.78% ±10.7 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,697 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,031 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 12,500 | $1,450 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 9,091 | $1,043 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,348 | $476 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Foil) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-foil-katowice-2015) | 1 in 4,167 | $467 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $448 | 1.6% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 2,564 | $285 | 1.6% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $282 | 1.6% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| mousesports (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 529 | $255 | 7.0% | 14 | 12.7 | 1.11× |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 495 | $238 | 7.0% | 13 | 13.5 | 0.96× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 420 | $202 | 6.9% | 20 | 15.9 | 1.25× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 263 | $126 | 7.0% | 25 | 25.4 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 171 | $81.93 | 7.0% | 28 | 39.2 | 0.71× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $63.88 | 8.3% | 62 | 60.4 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 89 | $51.52 | 8.3% | 75 | 74.9 | 1.00× |
| [Nova \| Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $27.34 | 8.3% | 134 | 141.1 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $21.29 | 8.3% | 168 | 181.2 | 0.93× |
| [Patch \| Howl patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-howl) | 1 in 30 | $17.22 | 8.3% | 220 | 224.0 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $7.63 | 5.1% | 318 | 307.2 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 10.5% | $3.33 | 5.1% | 723 | 703.9 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Aim And Fire sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aim-and-fire) | 73.0% | $0.05 | 0.5% | 4,891 | 4885.8 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/753415`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $7.77 $1,450 186.6x 2026-11-07 10:44 UTC

[★ Karambit | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) [Nibbson](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Nibbson) $7.77 $1,043 134.2x 2026-11-03 10:37 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.77 $476 61.23x 2026-11-09 18:29 UTC

[Sticker | LGB eSports (Foil) | Katowice 2015 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-foil-katowice-2015) Hidden $7.77 $467 60.11x 2026-11-04 23:19 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=753415)

[Sticker | Aim And Fire sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aim-and-fire) Hidden $7.77 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC

[Sticker | Aim And Fire sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aim-and-fire) Hidden $7.77 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC

[Sticker | Aim And Fire sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aim-and-fire) Hidden $7.77 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC

[Sticker | Aim And Fire sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aim-and-fire) [ShushiMnieYapa](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ShushiMnieYapa) $7.77 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC

[Nova | Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) Hidden $7.77 $27.34 3.52x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $7.77 $7.63 0.98x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[Sticker | Aim And Fire sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aim-and-fire) [ShushiMnieYapa](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ShushiMnieYapa) $7.77 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $7.77 $3.33 0.43x 2026-11-11 18:53 UTC

[Sticker | Aim And Fire sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aim-and-fire) Hidden $7.77 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:53 UTC

[Sticker | Aim And Fire sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aim-and-fire) [Wujek CSGOSKINS #CASEHUG](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Wujek%20CSGOSKINS%20%23CASEHUG) $7.77 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $7.77 | 88.90% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.4% contraband 0.0% covert 2.7% #d32ce6 0.2% mil spec 2.9% high 0.0% extraordinary 0.2% blue 2.1% exotic 3.3% industrial 4.6% Mythical 10.5% #4b69ff 73.0% best hit $1,450 (186.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.90 on average: an expected loss of $11.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt