--- title: "Szymonekk17 case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Szymonekk17 ($1.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.89% from 18 items with odds, observed 87.53% over 109K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/758557 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Szymonekk17](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/758557) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Szymonekk17 A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/758557?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/758557?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/758557) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/758557?window=all) Price · $1.00 Advertised RTP · 88.89% · EV $0.89 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.53% · 109K openings, odds method Variance · 21.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 39 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.36% ±9.15 9,951 openings 7 days · 87.31% ±3.08 87.5K openings 30 days · 87.53% ±2.77 109K openings since tracking started · 87.53% ±2.77 109K openings 76.5% 86.3% 96.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/758557?window=24h) | 9,951 | 86.36% ±9.15 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/758557?window=7d) | 87.5K | 87.31% ±3.08 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/758557) | 109K | 87.53% ±2.77 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/758557?window=all) | 109K | 87.53% ±2.77 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 109K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $265 | 2.1% | 5 | 7.6 | 0.66× | | [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $260 | 2.1% | 5 | 7.6 | 0.66× | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 4,167 | $78.62 | 2.1% | 34 | 26.2 | 1.30× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 3,030 | $57.95 | 2.2% | 29 | 36.0 | 0.81× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 2,703 | $51.58 | 2.1% | 49 | 40.3 | 1.22× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 2,564 | $49.78 | 2.2% | 40 | 42.5 | 0.94× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-well-worn) | 1 in 1,887 | $35.85 | 2.1% | 66 | 57.8 | 1.14× | | [Sticker \| Team Spirit (Foil) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-spirit-foil-katowice-2019) | 1 in 1,818 | $35.08 | 2.2% | 51 | 59.9 | 0.85× | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,493 | $28.47 | 2.1% | 57 | 73.0 | 0.78× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 1,370 | $26.35 | 2.2% | 69 | 79.5 | 0.87× | | [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 1,031 | $19.77 | 2.2% | 116 | 105.7 | 1.10× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 826 | $15.81 | 2.2% | 124 | 131.9 | 0.94× | | [Tec-9 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $12.97 | 13.9% | 1,027 | 1041.8 | 0.99× | | [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $12.40 | 13.9% | 1,130 | 1089.7 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $6.81 | 14.0% | 1,941 | 1984.4 | 0.98× | | [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $5.10 | 13.9% | 2,666 | 2649.1 | 1.01× | | [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $4.18 | 14.5% | 3,312 | 3355.2 | 0.99× | | [AUG \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) | 90.1% | $0.04 | 4.1% | 98,251 | 98183.8 | 1.00× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/758557`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.00 $265 265.3x 2026-11-10 19:03 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.00 $265 265.3x 2026-11-10 18:52 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.00 $265 265.3x 2026-11-06 23:40 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) [awpMANYAC666PL SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/awpMANYAC666PL%20SKINS) $1.00 $265 265.3x 2026-11-06 12:17 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) [israeli brothers](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/israeli%20brothers) $1.00 $265 265.3x 2026-11-04 21:52 UTC [M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $260 260.5x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $260 260.5x 2026-11-08 19:26 UTC [M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) [Walo99](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Walo99) $1.00 $260 260.5x 2026-11-07 19:20 UTC [M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) [⋆˚࿔ swen 𝜗𝜚˚⋆](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%8B%86%CB%9A%E0%BF%94%20swen%20%20%F0%9D%9C%97%F0%9D%9C%9A%CB%9A%E2%8B%86) $1.00 $260 260.5x 2026-11-04 22:39 UTC [M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) [Gruszka Pietruszka](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Gruszka%20Pietruszka) $1.00 $260 260.5x 2026-11-04 11:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=758557) [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) [EustachyCS2](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/EustachyCS2) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) [Kapselek22skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kapselek22skins.army) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) [EmciX skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/EmciX%20skins.army) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) [dominik automatovic](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/dominik%20automatovic) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) [-\_-KoniuU-\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/-_-KoniuU-_-) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.00 | 88.89% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 3.3% covert 0.1% #8847ff 1.8% gold 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% exotic 0.1% pink 0.1% Legendary 0.1% mil spec 1.0% #d32ce6 1.0% restricted 2.4% consumer 90.1% best hit $265 (265.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.89 on average: an expected loss of $11.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt