---
title: "Olympus case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Olympus ($1,000.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.61% from 34 items with odds, observed 104.98% over 101 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761256
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Olympus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761256)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Olympus

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761256?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761256?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761256) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761256?window=all)

Price · $1,000.00

Advertised RTP · 86.61% · EV $866.09 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 104.98% · 101 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 5 openings · below min

7 days · 71 openings · below min

30 days · 104.98% ±37.75 101 openings

since tracking started · 104.98% ±37.75 101 openings

-0.5% 87.8% 176.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761256?window=24h) | 5 | 5.76% ±169.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761256?window=7d) | 71 | 77.91% ±45.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761256) | 101 | 104.98% ±37.8 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761256?window=all) | 101 | 104.98% ±37.8 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 101 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 435 | $18.2K | 4.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 415 | $17.5K | 4.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 283 | $11.9K | 4.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 211 | $8,859 | 4.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 203 | $8,544 | 4.9% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 153 | $7,891 | 6.0% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 141 | $7,303 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $2,917 | 6.0% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $2,858 | 6.0% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $2,423 | 6.0% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $2,387 | 6.0% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $2,036 | 5.3% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.77× |
| [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) | 1 in 40 | $1,803 | 5.3% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.18× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $1,546 | 5.3% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $1,472 | 5.3% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.28× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1,149 | 5.3% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1,009 | 5.3% | 1 | 4.6 | 0.22× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 192 | $809 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 178 | $748 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 173 | $727 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 151 | $637 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $620 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-factory-new) | 1 in 122 | $511 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $440 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 74 | $310 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $253 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $202 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $142 | 0.5% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $80.87 | 0.5% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.33× |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $79.65 | 0.5% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $75.22 | 0.5% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.28× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $65.36 | 0.5% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 14.0% | $33.25 | 0.5% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.92× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 19.7% | $24.60 | 0.6% | 21 | 19.9 | 1.06× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/761256`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $18.2K 18.24x 2026-11-04 13:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) [FilipeQx](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/FilipeQx) $1,000 $8,859 8.86x 2026-11-10 13:42 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $8,544 8.54x 2026-11-04 13:58 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Kanczooga](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kanczooga) $1,000 $8,544 8.54x 2026-11-03 23:35 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,000 $7,891 7.89x 2026-11-07 12:39 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [aimstarooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/aimstarooo) $1,000 $7,891 7.89x 2026-11-03 17:36 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $2,917 2.92x 2026-11-06 16:45 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [FREE SKINY - Estebanosz \[KICK\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/FREE%20SKINY%20-%20Estebanosz%20%5BKICK%5D) $1,000 $2,858 2.86x 2026-11-10 13:42 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [FREE SKINY - Estebanosz \[KICK\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/FREE%20SKINY%20-%20Estebanosz%20%5BKICK%5D) $1,000 $2,423 2.42x 2026-11-10 13:42 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $2,423 2.42x 2026-11-09 15:25 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=761256)

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $1,000 $33.25 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,000 $75.22 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) [Santiago](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Santiago) $1,000 $75.22 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) Hidden $1,000 $24.60 0.02x 2026-11-11 08:28 UTC

[FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-minimal-wear) [KIWI77](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KIWI77) $1,000 $79.65 0.08x 2026-11-11 08:28 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) Hidden $1,000 $24.60 0.02x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,000 $80.87 0.08x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,000 $75.22 0.08x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-minimal-wear) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $1,000 $80.87 0.08x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $637 0.64x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1,000 | 86.61% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 35.3% legendary 0.2% contraband 0.5% extraordinary 8.5% epic 3.2% high 2.5% covert knife 2.9% classified 8.1% gold 0.7% mil spec 6.9% #8847ff 5.3% red 6.2% Legendary 19.7% best hit $18.2K (18.24x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.61 on average: an expected loss of $13.39 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt