---
title: "RAPA NUI case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "RAPA NUI ($150.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.97% from 42 items with odds, observed 81.52% over 943 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761293
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [RAPA NUI](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761293)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · RAPA NUI

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761293?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761293?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761293) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761293?window=all)

Price · $150.00

Advertised RTP · 88.97% · EV $133.46 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.52% · 943 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 46 openings · below min

7 days · 78.40% ±12.07 726 openings

30 days · 81.52% ±10.59 943 openings

since tracking started · 81.52% ±10.59 943 openings

34.0% 82.8% 131.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761293?window=24h) | 46 | 82.64% ±48.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761293?window=7d) | 726 | 78.40% ±12.1 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761293) | 943 | 81.52% ±10.6 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761293?window=all) | 943 | 81.52% ±10.6 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 943 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,205 | $3,468 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 735 | $2,116 | 2.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Fnatic (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 704 | $2,027 | 2.2% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.24× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 588 | $1,690 | 2.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 488 | $1,403 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 465 | $1,333 | 2.1% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 441 | $1,265 | 2.2% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.93× |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 412 | $1,180 | 2.1% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 325 | $985 | 2.3% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 316 | $961 | 2.3% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 300 | $912 | 2.3% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 270 | $821 | 2.3% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.15× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 261 | $792 | 2.3% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 258 | $783 | 2.3% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 256 | $777 | 2.3% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 211 | $642 | 2.3% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 190 | $577 | 2.3% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.21× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 172 | $524 | 2.3% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.28× |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 159 | $482 | 2.3% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.67× |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 150 | $454 | 2.3% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.27× |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 137 | $415 | 2.3% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 134 | $406 | 2.3% | 10 | 7.0 | 1.42× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 128 | $388 | 2.3% | 11 | 7.4 | 1.49× |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $334 | 2.3% | 14 | 8.6 | 1.63× |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $222 | 4.4% | 21 | 24.9 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $199 | 4.4% | 27 | 27.8 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $192 | 4.4% | 19 | 28.8 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $185 | 4.4% | 9 | 29.9 | 0.30× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $171 | 4.4% | 21 | 32.4 | 0.65× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $155 | 4.4% | 25 | 35.8 | 0.70× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $154 | 4.4% | 27 | 36.0 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $149 | 1.8% | 28 | 14.9 | 1.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $132 | 1.8% | 17 | 16.8 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $124 | 1.8% | 17 | 17.9 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $121 | 1.8% | 24 | 18.4 | 1.31× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $94.81 | 1.8% | 34 | 23.4 | 1.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $51.93 | 1.8% | 72 | 42.7 | 1.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $30.27 | 1.8% | 84 | 73.3 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $30.03 | 1.8% | 63 | 73.9 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $7.37 | 0.5% | 93 | 85.3 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 13.6% | $4.91 | 0.5% | 143 | 128.0 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 14.7% | $4.41 | 0.5% | 127 | 138.8 | 0.91× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/761293`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $150 $2,027 13.52x 2026-11-10 22:59 UTC

[Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) [saju](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/saju) $150 $2,027 13.52x 2026-11-10 14:32 UTC

[Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $150 $2,027 13.52x 2026-11-04 15:11 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $150 $1,814 12.10x 2026-11-09 13:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $150 $1,366 9.11x 2026-11-08 14:31 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) [FREE SKINY - Estebanosz \[KICK\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/FREE%20SKINY%20-%20Estebanosz%20%5BKICK%5D) $150 $1,366 9.11x 2026-11-03 19:40 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) Hidden $150 $1,353 9.02x 2026-11-06 22:40 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) [ku](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ku) $150 $1,353 9.02x 2026-11-04 18:36 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) [kRaSNAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kRaSNAL) $150 $1,054 7.03x 2026-11-06 17:48 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-factory-new) [danke nächster](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/danke%20n%C3%A4chster) $150 $1,008 6.72x 2026-11-08 10:08 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=761293)

[AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $150 $51.93 0.35x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) Hidden $150 $4.91 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $150 $4.41 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) Hidden $150 $7.37 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) Hidden $150 $7.37 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) [adamnicho](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/adamnicho) $150 $4.41 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) Hidden $150 $30.27 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) [hades](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/hades) $150 $199 1.33x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-well-worn) Hidden $150 $154 1.02x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $150 $4.91 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $150 | 88.97% | 42 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $150 | 88.95% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 15.4% remarkable 0.1% covert knife 0.2% restricted 15.9% sunny 0.3% extraordinary 7.9% gold 0.3% classified 19.0% #d32ee6 17.4% Ancient 3.4% mil spec 6.5% #8847ff 13.6% best hit $2,027 (13.52x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.97 on average: an expected loss of $11.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt