---
title: "UFO case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "UFO ($5.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.82% from 38 items with odds, observed 89.17% over 10.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761318
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [UFO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761318)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · UFO

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761318?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761318?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761318) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761318?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 88.82% · EV $4.44 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.17% · 10.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 73.87% ±12.41 1,239 openings

7 days · 89.00% ±4.81 8,371 openings

30 days · 89.17% ±4.32 10.4K openings

since tracking started · 89.17% ±4.32 10.4K openings

61.0% 77.8% 94.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761318?window=24h) | 1,239 | 73.87% ±12.4 | −2.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761318?window=7d) | 8,371 | 89.00% ±4.81 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761318) | 10.4K | 89.17% ±4.32 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/761318?window=all) | 10.4K | 89.17% ±4.32 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $248 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $229 | 0.9% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.69× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $207 | 0.9% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $199 | 0.9% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 3,226 | $126 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 3,125 | $121 | 0.9% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $95.17 | 0.9% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.47× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-well-worn) | 1 in 2,273 | $88.00 | 0.9% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 2,222 | $86.66 | 0.9% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 1,923 | $74.01 | 0.9% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.29× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 1,887 | $72.60 | 0.9% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.72× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,852 | $72.02 | 0.9% | 8 | 5.6 | 1.42× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,613 | $62.14 | 0.9% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 1 in 1,471 | $57.29 | 0.9% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.85× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 231 | $42.88 | 4.2% | 29 | 45.2 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 219 | $40.76 | 4.2% | 27 | 47.6 | 0.57× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 210 | $38.91 | 4.2% | 60 | 49.8 | 1.21× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $38.14 | 4.2% | 47 | 50.8 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 189 | $35.05 | 4.2% | 60 | 55.3 | 1.08× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) | 1 in 169 | $31.45 | 4.2% | 65 | 61.7 | 1.05× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 119 | $22.18 | 4.2% | 95 | 87.4 | 1.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 113 | $21.05 | 4.2% | 88 | 92.1 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $19.69 | 4.2% | 104 | 98.4 | 1.06× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $17.71 | 4.2% | 123 | 109.5 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $14.47 | 4.2% | 134 | 133.9 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $13.98 | 4.2% | 156 | 138.6 | 1.13× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $13.46 | 4.2% | 161 | 144.0 | 1.12× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $11.88 | 4.2% | 166 | 163.1 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $10.96 | 6.1% | 229 | 257.2 | 0.89× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $8.38 | 6.1% | 298 | 336.3 | 0.89× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $7.83 | 6.1% | 308 | 359.9 | 0.86× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $5.56 | 6.1% | 498 | 506.9 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 86 | $2.75 | 0.7% | 94 | 121.5 | 0.77× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $1.30 | 0.7% | 244 | 257.0 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $1.12 | 0.7% | 309 | 298.2 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.78 | 0.7% | 393 | 428.3 | 0.92× |
| [FAMAS \| Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-minimal-wear) | 10.7% | $0.30 | 0.7% | 1,105 | 1113.4 | 0.99× |
| [MAG-7 \| Foresight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-field-tested) | 52.0% | $0.11 | 1.3% | 5,593 | 5424.1 | 1.03× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/761318`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) [zamil](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/zamil) $5.00 $262 52.37x 2026-11-04 21:50 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=761318)

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.11 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.11 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) [peizerr](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/peizerr) $5.00 $0.78 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) Hidden $5.00 $14.47 2.89x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-minimal-wear) [DnaMoczanowa](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DnaMoczanowa) $5.00 $1.12 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-field-tested) [kick.com/RadmeR77](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kick.com%2FRadmeR77) $5.00 $0.11 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[FAMAS | Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 $0.30 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.11 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.11 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

[M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) [AdaskoOO](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/AdaskoOO) $5.00 $35.05 7.01x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $5.00 | 88.82% | 38 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $5.00 | 88.89% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.8% extraordinary 0.0% classified 11.0% covert knife 0.1% industrial 0.1% restricted 8.3% Ancient 0.5% pink 0.9% mil spec 14.8% #d32ee6 1.0% Rare 8.1% violet 2.5% #4b69ff 52.0% best hit $262 (52.37x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.82 on average: an expected loss of $11.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt