---
title: "HOT WINNERS case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "HOT WINNERS ($35.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.87% from 33 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/811410
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [HOT WINNERS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/811410)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · HOT WINNERS

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/811410?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/811410?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/811410) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/811410?window=all)

Price · $35.00

Advertised RTP · 88.87% · EV $31.10 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/811410?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/811410?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/811410) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/811410?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,351 | $390 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,282 | $367 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,075 | $309 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 926 | $267 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 787 | $226 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-field-tested) | 1 in 730 | $210 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 690 | $198 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 575 | $165 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 154 | $128 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 150 | $125 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 146 | $122 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $108 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 121 | $101 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $101 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $92.99 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $83.22 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $80.53 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $68.57 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $64.01 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $60.26 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $54.76 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $54.04 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $47.09 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $43.86 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $38.08 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $31.27 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $25.68 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $18.03 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $13.61 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $10.76 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 10.1% | $9.00 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 11.0% | $8.29 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 16.9% | $5.42 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/811410`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=811410)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $35.00 | 88.87% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 36.5% Covert 0.1% extraordinary 1.1% classified 23.7% #ffd700 0.9% mil spec 4.6% industrial 5.1% Legendary 11.0% violet 16.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.87 on average: an expected loss of $11.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt