---
title: "Desert Hydra case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Desert Hydra ($170.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.75% from 25 items with odds, observed 90.01% over 237 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815252
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Desert Hydra](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815252)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Desert Hydra

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815252?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815252?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815252) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815252?window=all)

Price · $170.00

Advertised RTP · 88.75% · EV $150.88 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.01% · 237 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 33 openings · below min

7 days · 97.60% ±20.10 173 openings

30 days · 90.01% ±17.17 237 openings

since tracking started · 90.01% ±17.17 237 openings

72.0% 119.0% 166.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815252?window=24h) | 33 | 119.38% ±46.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815252?window=7d) | 173 | 97.60% ±20.1 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815252) | 237 | 90.01% ±17.2 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815252?window=all) | 237 | 90.01% ±17.2 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 237 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 990 | $2,719 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 847 | $2,336 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 676 | $1,855 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 552 | $1,519 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $1,126 | 5.0% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 142 | $1,068 | 5.0% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 136 | $1,017 | 5.0% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $642 | 5.0% | 6 | 2.8 | 2.17× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 70 | $525 | 5.0% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $432 | 5.0% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.21× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $351 | 4.6% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.27× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $314 | 4.6% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $285 | 4.6% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $272 | 4.6% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $267 | 4.6% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.97× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $193 | 4.6% | 8 | 8.6 | 0.93× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $138 | 3.3% | 11 | 8.6 | 1.27× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $131 | 3.3% | 11 | 9.1 | 1.21× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $130 | 3.3% | 13 | 9.1 | 1.43× |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $86.33 | 3.3% | 14 | 13.8 | 1.02× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $74.56 | 3.3% | 16 | 15.9 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $74.12 | 3.3% | 14 | 16.0 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 13.0% | $58.88 | 5.1% | 31 | 30.9 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 14.5% | $53.00 | 5.1% | 33 | 34.3 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 19.4% | $38.43 | 4.9% | 47 | 46.0 | 1.02× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/815252`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $170 $2,719 16.00x 2026-11-08 14:31 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $170 $1,855 10.91x 2026-11-08 14:31 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $170 $1,126 6.62x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) [saju](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/saju) $170 $1,126 6.62x 2026-11-10 22:59 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) [cerolziN](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cerolziN) $170 $1,126 6.62x 2026-11-05 20:00 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $170 $642 3.78x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $170 $642 3.78x 2026-11-10 06:27 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $170 $642 3.78x 2026-11-10 03:17 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $170 $642 3.78x 2026-11-09 22:46 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $170 $642 3.78x 2026-11-06 22:25 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=815252)

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) Hidden $170 $53.00 0.31x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $170 $432 2.54x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $170 $642 3.78x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) [kick.com/krycholewa (rozdaje$)](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kick.com%2Fkrycholewa%20%28rozdaje%24%29) $170 $38.43 0.23x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) Hidden $170 $58.88 0.35x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) Hidden $170 $53.00 0.31x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $170 $193 1.14x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC

[AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) Hidden $170 $58.88 0.35x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC

[Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) Hidden $170 $86.33 0.51x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC

[AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) Hidden $170 $58.88 0.35x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $170 | 88.75% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 34.9% extraordinary 10.5% classified 20.3% gold 1.2% epic 1.4% mil spec 1.7% Covert 2.0% #ffd700 2.5% restricted 12.6% Ancient 13.0% best hit $2,719 (16.00x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.75 on average: an expected loss of $11.25 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt