---
title: "Fire Serpent case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fire Serpent ($275.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.58% from 29 items with odds, observed 86.01% over 516 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815258
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Fire Serpent](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815258)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Fire Serpent

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815258?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815258?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815258) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815258?window=all)

Price · $275.00

Advertised RTP · 86.58% · EV $238.09 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.01% · 516 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 37 openings · below min

7 days · 80.97% ±11.63 361 openings

30 days · 86.01% ±9.73 516 openings

since tracking started · 86.01% ±9.73 516 openings

43.5% 80.5% 117.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815258?window=24h) | 37 | 80.67% ±36.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815258?window=7d) | 361 | 80.97% ±11.6 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815258) | 516 | 86.01% ±9.73 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815258?window=all) | 516 | 86.01% ±9.73 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 516 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 775 | $2,718 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $2,336 | 1.5% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 637 | $2,234 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 417 | $1,460 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 412 | $1,441 | 1.5% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.39× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 410 | $1,435 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 407 | $1,425 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 407 | $1,422 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $1,140 | 5.1% | 9 | 5.5 | 1.63× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $866 | 5.1% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $803 | 5.1% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $779 | 5.1% | 4 | 8.1 | 0.50× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $753 | 5.1% | 4 | 8.3 | 0.48× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $688 | 5.1% | 11 | 9.1 | 1.21× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $586 | 4.0% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.72× |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $575 | 4.0% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.94× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $496 | 4.0% | 7 | 9.9 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-orion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $458 | 4.0% | 9 | 10.7 | 0.84× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $443 | 4.0% | 7 | 11.1 | 0.63× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $417 | 4.0% | 16 | 11.7 | 1.36× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $267 | 4.1% | 19 | 18.7 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $253 | 4.1% | 16 | 19.7 | 0.81× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $233 | 4.1% | 25 | 21.4 | 1.17× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $215 | 4.1% | 22 | 23.2 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $146 | 4.1% | 33 | 34.2 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 12.9% | $74.77 | 4.1% | 73 | 66.7 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 12.2% | $60.16 | 3.1% | 64 | 62.9 | 1.02× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 14.1% | $52.03 | 3.1% | 67 | 72.7 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 15.8% | $46.81 | 3.1% | 89 | 81.4 | 1.09× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/815258`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) [neexcsgo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/neexcsgo) $275 $2,718 9.88x 2026-11-03 15:26 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $275 $2,336 8.50x 2026-11-10 17:32 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) [FREE SKINY - Estebanosz \[KICK\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/FREE%20SKINY%20-%20Estebanosz%20%5BKICK%5D) $275 $2,336 8.50x 2026-11-05 19:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $275 $1,460 5.31x 2026-11-03 15:26 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $275 $1,441 5.24x 2026-11-10 01:01 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [aimstarooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/aimstarooo) $275 $1,441 5.24x 2026-11-03 17:34 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [aimstarooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/aimstarooo) $275 $1,441 5.24x 2026-11-03 17:34 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) [neexcsgo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/neexcsgo) $275 $1,435 5.22x 2026-11-05 02:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) [neexcsgo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/neexcsgo) $275 $1,422 5.17x 2026-11-05 02:23 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) Hidden $275 $1,140 4.15x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=815258)

[★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) Hidden $275 $1,140 4.15x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $275 $215 0.78x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $275 $52.03 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $275 $146 0.53x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $275 $52.03 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC

[AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $275 $688 2.50x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $275 $52.03 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-minimal-wear) Hidden $275 $496 1.80x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC

[AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $275 $253 0.92x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $275 $215 0.78x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $275 | 86.58% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 64.2% extraordinary 3.4% #ffd700 0.2% restricted 8.5% gold 1.9% classified 3.6% covert knife 2.3% mil spec 3.8% Ancient 12.2% best hit $2,718 (9.88x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.58 on average: an expected loss of $13.42 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt