---
title: "Medusa case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Medusa ($380.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.55% from 23 items with odds, observed 92.30% over 142 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815260
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Medusa](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815260)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Medusa

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815260?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815260?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815260) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815260?window=all)

Price · $380.00

Advertised RTP · 86.55% · EV $328.88 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.30% · 142 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 26 openings · below min

7 days · 83.81% ±26.50 107 openings

30 days · 92.30% ±23.01 142 openings

since tracking started · 92.30% ±23.01 142 openings

23.0% 77.5% 132.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815260?window=24h) | 26 | 77.36% ±53.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815260?window=7d) | 107 | 83.81% ±26.5 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815260) | 142 | 92.30% ±23.0 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815260?window=all) | 142 | 92.30% ±23.0 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 142 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 781 | $6,066 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 694 | $5,413 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $3,897 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 426 | $3,317 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 366 | $2,858 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 104 | $2,205 | 6.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 93 | $1,982 | 6.4% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $1,492 | 6.4% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $783 | 6.4% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.78× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $727 | 6.4% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $695 | 4.9% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $659 | 4.9% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.74× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $541 | 4.9% | 8 | 4.2 | 1.90× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $491 | 4.9% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.86× |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $447 | 4.9% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.79× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $382 | 4.9% | 9 | 6.0 | 1.51× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $348 | 4.6% | 1 | 6.1 | 0.16× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $326 | 4.6% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $322 | 4.6% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $159 | 4.6% | 14 | 13.4 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $74.77 | 2.8% | 18 | 17.7 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 13.2% | $70.50 | 2.8% | 17 | 18.8 | 0.90× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-minimal-wear) | 22.5% | $41.17 | 2.8% | 33 | 31.9 | 1.03× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/815260`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [ku](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ku) $380 $5,413 14.24x 2026-11-04 21:00 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) Hidden $380 $3,897 10.26x 2026-11-04 16:34 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $380 $3,317 8.73x 2026-11-04 16:34 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) [saju](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/saju) $380 $2,205 5.80x 2026-11-10 22:59 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) Hidden $380 $1,492 3.93x 2026-11-03 17:03 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $380 $783 2.06x 2026-11-10 18:25 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) [boltz](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/boltz) $380 $783 2.06x 2026-11-07 02:12 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) [boltz](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/boltz) $380 $783 2.06x 2026-11-05 21:12 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $380 $727 1.91x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $380 $727 1.91x 2026-11-07 19:29 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=815260)

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $380 $70.50 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [aimstarooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/aimstarooo) $380 $491 1.29x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-minimal-wear) Hidden $380 $41.17 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-minimal-wear) [aimstarooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/aimstarooo) $380 $41.17 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $380 $348 0.92x 2026-11-11 15:26 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $380 $382 1.00x 2026-11-11 15:26 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $380 $382 1.00x 2026-11-11 15:26 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) Hidden $380 $74.77 0.20x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $380 $70.50 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $380 $727 1.91x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $380 | 86.55% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 57.1% legendary 0.2% classified 5.2% epic 0.3% #ffd700 3.5% gold 2.7% extraordinary 26.6% sunny 4.3% best hit $5,413 (14.24x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.55 on average: an expected loss of $13.45 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt