--- title: "Howl case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Howl ($430.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.66% from 26 items with odds, observed 65.88% over 81 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815270 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Howl](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815270) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Howl A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815270?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815270?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815270) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815270?window=all) Price · $430.00 Advertised RTP · 86.66% · EV $372.62 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 65.88% · 81 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 11 openings · below min 7 days · 74 openings · below min 30 days · 81 openings · below min since tracking started · 81 openings · below min -0.5% 88.3% 177.0% **Small sample.** 81 openings and 9.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815270?window=24h) | 11 | 76.01% ±100.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815270?window=7d) | 74 | 61.18% ±38.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815270) | 81 | 65.88% ±36.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815270?window=all) | 81 | 65.88% ±36.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 81 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $8,575 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 714 | $7,682 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 602 | $6,484 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 595 | $6,408 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 493 | $5,300 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $2,423 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 121 | $2,214 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 112 | $2,041 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) | 1 in 103 | $1,876 | 4.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $1,460 | 4.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $1,156 | 4.9% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.57× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $924 | 4.9% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $814 | 4.4% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.44× | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $731 | 4.4% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.64× | | [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $701 | 4.4% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $668 | 4.4% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $566 | 4.4% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $435 | 4.4% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.33× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $334 | 2.6% | 5 | 2.3 | 2.15× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $284 | 2.6% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $278 | 2.6% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $170 | 2.6% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $119 | 2.6% | 12 | 6.5 | 1.84× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 13.2% | $111 | 3.9% | 8 | 10.7 | 0.75× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 17.0% | $85.60 | 3.9% | 13 | 13.8 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 21.6% | $70.30 | 4.1% | 18 | 17.5 | 1.03× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/815270`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) Hidden $430 $1,876 4.36x 2026-11-04 18:36 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $430 $1,460 3.40x 2026-11-10 20:59 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $430 $1,156 2.69x 2026-11-10 17:29 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $430 $1,156 2.69x 2026-11-05 21:05 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $430 $924 2.15x 2026-11-05 21:10 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $430 $924 2.15x 2026-11-04 21:00 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $430 $814 1.89x 2026-11-10 20:58 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [Diabeuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Diabeuu) $430 $814 1.89x 2026-11-09 23:15 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $430 $814 1.89x 2026-11-08 13:02 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [►CBN◄ sqrwySynek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%96%BACBN%E2%97%84%20sqrwySynek) $430 $814 1.89x 2026-11-07 15:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=815270) [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) Hidden $430 $111 0.26x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-well-worn) Hidden $430 $278 0.65x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-well-worn) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $430 $119 0.28x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $430 $1,460 3.40x 2026-11-10 20:59 UTC [AWP | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $430 $70.30 0.16x 2026-11-10 20:59 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-well-worn) Hidden $430 $119 0.28x 2026-11-10 20:59 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $430 $85.60 0.20x 2026-11-10 20:59 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $430 $85.60 0.20x 2026-11-10 20:58 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $430 $814 1.89x 2026-11-10 20:58 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $430 $334 0.78x 2026-11-10 20:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $430 | 86.66% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.5% covert 49.4% restricted 2.1% extraordinary 4.4% sunny 2.0% classified 2.9% #ffd700 3.4% pink 5.7% covert knife 8.1% Ancient 21.6% best hit $1,876 (4.36x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.66 on average: an expected loss of $13.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt